000 AGXX40 KNHC 130740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESS OVER THE SE CONUS IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ALREADY IN PROGRESS W OF 94W. SEVERAL PLATFORMS OFF THE TEXAS COAST ARE ALREADY REPORTING STEADY WINDS OF 20 KT. SE TO S WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SPREAD EWD TO 90W WHILE NE TO E WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE E GULF. MAXIMUM AREAL EXTENT OF SE TO S WINDS OCCURS OVER THE GULF SUN THEN BEGINS TO DECREASE OVER THE WRN GULF MON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN EXPANSIVE 5H RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF TUE AND WED...HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE ON THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM BRIEFLY SLIDING THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF TUE BEFORE IT RETREATS NWD OVER TEXAS ON WED. THE GFS/NOGAPS AND CMC NEVER BRING THE FRONT INTO THE GULF. NORMALLY GIVEN SUCH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WOULD PREFER THE NWP MODELS WHICH KEEP THE FRONT OVER LAND...HOWEVER SINCE THE AIR MASS IS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC ORIGIN THINK THE FRONT WILL MAKE INTO THE GULF HOWEVER BRIEFLY AND WILL MENTION A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TUE BEFORE THE FRONT RETREATS WED. THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO E CUBA WITH REINFORCING FRONT ON ITS HEELS EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NOTED W OF THE SECONDARY FRONT AND IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS MOVES NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND STRENGTHENS WITH VEERING NE WINDS LATER TODAY INCREASING TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND SUN N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 9-14 FT BY LATE SUN. 20-30 KT WINDS CONTINUE INTO MON OVER VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH NWW3 BUILDING SEAS TO 10-16 FT. TRAJECTORY AND FOCUS OF THE WINDS CHANGES TUE AND WED WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRIMARILY E OF 70W. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESS WELL E OF THE ZONE N OF 25N AND ALONG 55W. THIS TRAJECTORY OF WINDS AND SWELLS MAY PUSH 12-14 FT SEAS WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES BOTH DAYS. AS A FINAL NOTE THE AREA OF LOW PRESS MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA JUST OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST. FRONT HAS USHERED IN N WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE NW AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE AND REMAIN 20 KT OVER THE FAR N CARIBBEAN AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. BY MON FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEGIN TO FUNNEL INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUE AND WED. SOME OF THE NE WINDS ALSO FILTER INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAINS RESULTING FROM FETCH OF THE SRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS REACHING 12-14 FT TUE AND WED. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.