000 AGXX40 KNHC 091844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESENT PATTERN FAVORS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS BUOY THROUGHOUT THE NW ZONE ARE REPORTING SE TO S 20 TO 30 KT WINDS...WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING NEARLY SOLID 25 KT E OF 93W. WINDS AVERAGE SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SW AND SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS HAVE MATURED TO 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE NW...6 TO 10 FT OVER THE SW N OF 20...AND 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 5 TO 8 FT BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. A STRONG COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO RACE INTO THE NW WATERS VERY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. IMMEDIATELY AFTER ITS PASSAGE... RAPIDLY RISING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER PLAINS WILL BUILD IN AND CAUSE NW TO N WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND 35 TO 45 KT S OF 28N BY SUNRISE WED MORNING. THE FRONT FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SOUTH AND THEN EAST BY WED EVENING...USHERING IN SIMILAR BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER ALL OF THE SW ZONE...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A STORM WARNING. WITH ALREADY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS IN SE TO S SWELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE STRONG WINDS NOW FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION WILL DIRECT N SWELL SOUTHWARD...CREATING ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS..WITH WAVE HEIGHTS MAXING OUT LATE WED BETWEEN 11 AND 19 FT. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN TRACK MORE SLOWLY E...AS ALL MODELS NOW ARE FORECASTING A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF LATE WED BEFORE TRACKING NE INTO THE SE U.S. W TO NW WINDS SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF ZONES...WITH THE FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR THE SE GULF WATERS LATER THU AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO N OF 25. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT AND COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...POSSIBLY ALONG A WELL-DEFINED LINE. AT THE MOMENT... MODELS DO NOT INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...JUST W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SLIM CHANCE THAT GALE CONDITIONS COULD MATERIALIZE THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON OVER SOME PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT SURGING RAPIDLY SE. AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...10 TO 16 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL SHOULD ENGULF THE REMAINING WATERS LATER THU AND EARLY FRI. LONGER-TERM...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NW GULF FRI SHOULD GRADUALLY MIGRATE TO THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN THEN AND SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE FROM W TO E...THOUGH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ENHANCED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE NE. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 25N AND TO A LESSER EXTENT S OF THERE. WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FT...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO OBSERVE SEAS HIGHER THAN THESE VALUES. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. AT THIS POINT...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD AGAIN PEAK AROUND 25 KT...BUT A BETTER LONGER-TERM AVERAGE SAT THROUGH SUN SEEMS TO BE 15 TO 20 KT... WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC... UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND RELATIVE LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST TRADES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOULD NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT OVER A LARGE PART OF THIS AREA...WITH 30 TO 40 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND S OF HISPANIOLA IN AN AREA FROM 14N TO NEARLY 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. A CURSORY INVESTIGATION OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TWO GALE WARNINGS...ONE FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE FOR THE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ANOTHER ONE OVER THE NW PART OF THE E CARIBBEAN ZONE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OF LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 13 FT SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W...AND NOAA BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W HAS BEEN REPORTING ENE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FT SEAS ALL MORNING. ELSEWHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL EXCEPT E TO SE OVER THE NW WATERS...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. FINALLY...OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...GENERALLY N OF 16N...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6 TO 9 FT. THE STRONG AND SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE RIDGE TO THE NE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ... WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TRADES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E LATER WED INTO THU. EXPECT THE GREATEST INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY N OF 16N. THE GRADIENT SHOULD FURTHER RELAX BY FRI AND NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT WILL BE THE RULE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WHERE ENHANCED TRADES OF 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT OR 8 TO 12 FT SHOULD HANG ON A BIT LONGER. THOSE TRADES SHOULD BEGIN RELAXING THU AND FRI AND COMPLETELY SO BY LATER SAT INTO SUN. HOWEVER...A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF NE SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. 6 TO 10 FT SEAS SHOULD COVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INFILTRATE THE NE ATLC PASSAGES THU...WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS BY SAT AND SUN. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU MORNING. ALTHOUGH E TO SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN INTENSE W TO NW FLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND IT WILL VEER NW TO N...AVERAGING 20 TO ALMOST 30 KT. THE NOAA WAVEWATCH III FORECAST SEAS TO BUILD IN 6 TO 10 FT IN 8-9 SEC PERIOD SWELL S OF 18N OR 19N WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS N OF 19N. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE NORTHERN PART...WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE RESTING OVER THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SUN. SW N ATLC... A 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE N OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS LED TO FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF SOME OF THE BAHAMAS. QUIKSCAT... BUOY...AND AVAILABLE SHIP DATA SUGGEST TWO BANDS OF STRONGEST WINDS..THE FIRST FROM 24N TO 30N E OF 78W AND THE SECOND ONE S OF 22N E OF 75W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT EXIST IN THESE AREAS...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO SHOW E TO SE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SEAS LIKELY 10-30% HIGHER THAN THE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS THE NOAA WAVEWATCH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE NE SHOULD KEEP THE WIND MACHINE GOING...WITH NE TO E WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING MORE E TO SE. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE S OF 30N E OF 75W...WITH 9 TO 13 FT SEAS IN NE TO E SWELL. CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA COAST...THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER MORE SE TO S...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA COAST SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 9 FT AND 4 TO 7 FT IN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY THU...THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD COME DOWN SOME BUT STILL REMAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH. THE FOCUS BY THU WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER W...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY THU EVENING. N OF 27N W OF 72W S TO SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE THU OR EARLY FRI...WITH GALE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON TO EVENING N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST HAS STRENGTHENED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND DART THROUGH THE SE U.S. FROM LATE WED INTO LATE THU. EXPECT VERY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS OVER THIS AREA AS OLD E TO SE SWELL BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EFFECTS OF A STRENGTHENING S TO SW FLOW. LONGER-TERM...THE FRONT SHOULD CREEP FARTHER SE...THOUGH MORE E THAN SE FRI AND SAT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD GREATLY RELAX...EVEN TO THE POINT WHERE IT COULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES. STILL THOUGH...NE TO E SWELL COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RELATED TO THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL KEEP 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ACTIVE E OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT W TO NW WINDS INITIALLY AT 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD WIND DOWN BUT SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN N OF 27N...AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...SEAS SHOULD REBUILD TO 9 TO 14 FT UNDER NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT FLOW WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNINGS...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ080. STORM WARNING GMZ082. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.