000 AGXX40 KNHC 060730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TEXAS IS PUSHING EAST. THIS WILL DELIVER A REINFORCEMENT TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY E OF 90W. THIS TROUGH LIFTS OUT TONIGHT LEAVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS THROUGH ROCKIES...PICKING UP A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE...AND DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS BY LATE MON. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF INCREASES MON OFF THE TEXAS COAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT OVER THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE NIGHT...SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF SHOWING TUE EVENING BUT FASTER THAN THE UKMET SHOWING WED MORNING. AT ANY RATE...GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY WED. IN FACT...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO EXPAND THE AREA OF GALES TO THE NW GULF FOR WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED PERSISTENT 20 KT FLOW FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CAYMANS...LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF GRAND BAHAMA. THIS IS ALSO THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON 20 KT NE TO E FLOW SHOWING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE U.S. SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED. MODERATE TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SW N ATLC... 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N75W IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERALLY S OF 22N. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OF JACKSONVILLE TO 31N77W. A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY WILL FOSTER A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY...GIVING A REINFORCEMENT TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL START SHIFTING EAST LATE TODAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE MON AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND WEAKENS. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE FRONT IS ORIENTED MORE E-W ALONG ROUGHLY 24N BY EARLY TUE. E TO SE WINDS INCREASE S OF THE HIGH PRES TUE INTO WED. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.