000 AGXX40 KNHC 291813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 30N93W TO 28N97W. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING SLY 20 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 88W...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE LINE OF TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. W OF THE FRONT...N TO NE WINDS APPEAR FAIRLY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS A STRONG SHARP MID-UPPER TROUGH BECOMES IN PHASE WITH THE FRONT CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ITS REINFORCEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT SW WINDS MAY EVEN BE STRONGER THAN THAT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR THE MIDDLE AND EAST WATERS. HIGH PRES SHIFTS QUICKLY W-E ACROSS THE GULF MON AND TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE WED. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD AND STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID-LATE WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SFC DATA AND THIS MORNING'S QSCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE/E TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT INCREASING NE TO E TRADES TO 20 KT IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE SUN THRU WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUN. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE W OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS MON...E CUBA TO NICARAGUA MON NIGHT...AND STALL AND WEAKEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA TUE AND WED. NE SWELLS...ORIGINATING FROM A COMPLEX AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...IS ELEVATING SEAS OVER THE TROP N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. HOWEVER...WW3 DATA APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING THIS SWELL BY ABOUT 2 FT. TOOK THIS DATA INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. SW N ATLC... S TO SW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER AND OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS. ONCE THE FRONT GAINS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS...IT WILL WORK ITS WAY SE INTO THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER SUN EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W SUN EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. WHILE THERE WAS SOME HESITATION TO PUT UP A GALE HEADLINE EARLIER THIS WEEK DUE TO RUN-RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND MODEL SPREAD...SLY GALE WINDS NOW APPEAR LIKELY AS GFS INDICATES CORE WINDS OF 40 KT AND EVEN THE LOWER RES NGPS HAS 35 KT. BY LATE MON...THE LEADING FRONT AND ITS REINFORCEMENT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY MID-WEEK FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM W TO E. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.