000 AGXX40 KNHC 290757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 30N94W 27N100W MOVING SE. THE W GULF OF MEXICO... W OF 90W CURRENTLY HAS 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. THE E GULF HAS 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. EXPECT THIS STRONG COLD FRONT TO BE FROM 30N89W TO NE MEXICO EARLY SAT EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE E OF GULF MON MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON SAT...IT MAY AT FIRST LAG IN MOTION BUT THEN BECOME ENERGIZED WITH RESPECT TO ITS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD LATER ON SAT AS A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SWD INTO THE NW GULF. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS A LONGWAVE TYPE TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS SWINGING E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE ON TUE...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT THEN QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH MON WITH SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT SE OF THE GULF WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO 30 KT SUN AND SUN NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GULF. WILL FOLLOW WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT BUILDING BEHIND FRONT SUN THROUGH MON. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE GULF MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE HIGH THEN WEAKENS TUE OVER THE NE GULF BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SE UNITED STATES ON WED. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND WED AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AREA E OF 75W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS NAMELY NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. ALSO LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL OF 6-8 FT IS AFFECTING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ATLC PASSAGES. 6-8 FT SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MON MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVER JUST ABOUT ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT PRESENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE SE 15-20 KT N OF 20N W OF 82W. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NW-N 20-25 KT MON. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH A PSN FROM E CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE MON...AND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUE AFTERNOON THEN SLOW DOWN...AND BE NEAR THE SAME LOCATION ON WED BUT AT A WEAKER STATE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN N 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON TUE IN TIGHT GRADIENT SQUEEZE MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED 2 WEEKS AGO DURING THE PAST FRONTAL EVENT WHERE 30 KT WINDS WERE NOTICED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF INSTANCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON TUE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WILL MONITOR NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO POSSIBLY 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW SECTION OF THE SEA TUE...AND TO 8 OR 9 FT IN THE NW SECTION. SW N ATLC... LONG PERIOD N SWELL OF 6-8 FT CONTINUE OVER THE W ATLANTIC E OF 68W. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. THE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N66W WILL SHIFT E TO 28N60W ON SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT LATE SUN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DECREASE TO 20-30 KT ON MON MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON EVENING...AND FROM 31N65W TO NEAR HAITI BY LATE ON TUE...AND WEAKENING FROM 27N65W TO NEAR HAITI BY WED MORNING. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY NW 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS 10-16 FT W OF THE FRONT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON AND TUE. A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25-35 KT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SUN INTO MON N OF 28N BETWEEN 72W-77W BEFORE DECREASING TO 20 KT LATE MON. THIS IS BASED ON MODEL PERSISTENCE AND ENSEMBLE PERCENTAGES OF GALE WINDS NOW TOUCHING 31N...AND TO JUST S OF 31N LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BY WED WINDS WILL BE NE 20-25 KT ALONG AND JUST NW OF THE FRONT...AND NE 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. SE OF FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E 10-15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE MOSTLY S-SW 5-10 KT N OF 26N. SEAS WILL RANGE 7-10 JUST NW OF THE FRONT...AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE SE PART IN INCREASING E SWELL. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER FORMOSA. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.