000 AGXX40 KNHC 280755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0730 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON 28/0600 UTC. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA PROVIDING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY DUE TO RETURN SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY REACH FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS BY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REINFORCES THE FRONT AND PUSHES IT FURTHER SE SUN AND MON AT A MUCH MORE RAPID SPEED. INITIALLY STRONG 25-30 KT WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE N GULF ON SUNDAY. 25-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE N GULF ON MONDAY. 20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE OVERALL PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA IS MUCH WEAKER THAN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH WINDS AND SEAS ALSO AT MUCH LOWER LEVELS. MAIN PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OF UP TO 11 FT AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 14N. THESE SWELLS ORIGINATED FROM A PREVIOUS CENTRAL ATLC STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS WILL ONLY SLOW SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT MON AND TUE. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MON MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVER JUST ABOUT ALL ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT PRESENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT N OF 15N E OF 82W BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NW 20-25 KT MON. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH A PSN FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA LATE MON ...AND FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN N 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON TUE IN TIGHT GRADIENT SQUEEZE MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FRONTAL EVENT THAT OCCURRED ABOUT 2 WEEKS WHERE 30 KT WINDS WERE NOTICED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW SECTION OF THE SEA TUE...AND TO 8 OR 9 FT IN THE NW SECTION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TRADES WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUE (IN ABOUT THE 10-15 KT RANGE) WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT EXCEPT 5-6 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA RETREATS EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT PORTION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 31N55W TO 23N68W NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS NOW LIGHT NW-N 5-10 KT NEAR THE FRONT AND SEAS 4-6 FT IN N SWELL AS REPORTED BY BUOY DATA NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE FRONT. LONG PERIOD N SWELLS OF 7-9 FT CONTINUE OVER THE AREA E OF 70W...AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 5-8 FT BY FRI NIGHT...AND FURTHER OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SAT THROUGH TUE OUTSIDE OF COLD FRONT AFFECTED WATERS MENTIONED BELOW. WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THESE WATERS LATE SUN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DECREASE TO 20-30 KT ON MON MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON EVENING...AND FROM 31N65W TO NEAR HAITI BY LATE ON TUE WITH NW WINDS BEHIND DOWN TO MOSTLY NW 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS 10-16 FT W OF THE FRONT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER FORMOSA. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.