000 AGXX40 KNHC 251902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. MORNING QSCAT AND SFC DATA REVEAL N TO NE 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT NLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE WHILE THE W PORTION LIFTS BACK AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW. THIS DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT WINDS AND SEAS AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING. A 1029 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS WILL BE SHIFTING E AND WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NWP MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH GFS/ECMWF/NAM FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI AFTERNOON... WHILE NGPS/UKMET SUGGEST TIMES AS LATE AS SAT MORNING. LEANING TOWARD THE EARLIER SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN IS CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 73W-83W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR NW WATERS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS JUST N OF THE AREA...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST TO MARINERS OVER THE TROP N ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW PRES DRIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE FOR THE N HALF THROUGH THU NIGHT. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EXTENDING FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS ON BOTH SIDE OF THE FRONT. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS SE OF THE AREA THU. HIGH PRES SHIFTS E BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT. A NE SWELL EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MEANDERING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ELEVATING SEAS TO 10 FT BUT WILL BE SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.