000
AGXX40 KNHC 211828
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND 
PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS 
INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR 
SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE 
NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML

A BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN W OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE EASTERN ATLC.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM 31N50W 
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO PANAMA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS 
THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR FORECAST WATERS IN THE ATLC 
SOUTHEASTWARD.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE 
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL INDUCE A STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...KEEPING WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS IN 
THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE IN MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO MON.

IT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WEAKER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER 
WITH THE NEW 1200 UTC ECMWF FORECAST CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN 
THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  FOR NOW...WILL STICK 
WITH THE FASTER CONSENSUS LEAD BY THE GFS.  WHILE THIS COLD 
FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS 
GULF WATERS...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE 20 TO 25 
KT RANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON TUE AND WED WITH SEAS 
APPROACHING THE 8 FT MARK.

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.