000 AGXX40 KNHC 201909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML MEAN TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS POLAR ORIGINS AND WILL BRING N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND SAT AND SW N ATLC FORECAST WATERS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THEY DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT. THIS SYSTEM HAS PACIFIC ORIGINS AND IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MON/TUE. AT THE SURFACE...THE UKMET IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND IT IS THE FASTEST TO CARRY THE SYSTEM EASTWARD OFF THE E COAST N OF FORECAST WATERS WITH THE BOUNDARY BARELY SKIRTING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. LIKE THE UKMET...THE NOGAPS IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND LESS AMPLIFIED. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND THIS IDEA WAS PREFERRED BY HPC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MON/TUE AS THESE MODELS AGREE ON ALLOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GULF AT THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO BE THE BENEFICIARY OF THE REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ON MONDAY...THE MODELS AGREE ON PINCHING OFF SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE BROAD EASTERN U.S./WESTERN ATLC TROUGH NEAR 35N55W...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE UKMET/NOGAPS. WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION PREFERRED UPSTREAM...SEEMS LOGICAL TO GO WITH IT HERE AS WELL. ATLANTIC... NONE CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. 000 AGXX40 KNHC 201909 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML MEAN TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS POLAR ORIGINS AND WILL BRING N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND SAT AND SW N ATLC FORECAST WATERS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THEY DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT. THIS SYSTEM HAS PACIFIC ORIGINS AND IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MON/TUE. AT THE SURFACE...THE UKMET IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND IT IS THE FASTEST TO CARRY THE SYSTEM EASTWARD OFF THE E COAST N OF FORECAST WATERS WITH THE BOUNDARY BARELY SKIRTING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. LIKE THE UKMET...THE NOGAPS IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND LESS AMPLIFIED. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND THIS IDEA WAS PREFERRED BY HPC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MON/TUE AS THESE MODELS AGREE ON ALLOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GULF AT THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO BE THE BENEFICIARY OF THE REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ON MONDAY...THE MODELS AGREE ON PINCHING OFF SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE BROAD EASTERN U.S./WESTERN ATLC TROUGH NEAR 35N55W...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE UKMET/NOGAPS. WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION PREFERRED UPSTREAM...SEEMS LOGICAL TO GO WITH IT HERE AS WELL. ATLANTIC... NONE CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.