000 AGXX40 KNHC 190642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST WED NOV 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS SURGING RAPIDLY SE E OF 90W BUT IS MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS W OF 90W. THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS PRODUCING N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MOST AREAS E OF 90W...WITH A SMATTERING OF 20 KT WINDS JUST CROSSING 90W. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ONLY BEEN BLOWING SINCE EARLIER TODAY...WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE COME BACK UP E OF 90W...WITH WAVEWATCH INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO 9 FT. BUOY 42036 IN THE NE GULF IS CURRENTLY NEAR THAT VALUE WITH 8 FT...WHILE SURROUNDING BUOYS SHOW VALUES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT. 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE ALSO GOOD BET NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE WINDS NEVER REALLY HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO DECREASE OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. W OF 90W...THE N TO NE FLOW DROPS OF TO 10 TO 15 KT...WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS FARTHER W. SEAS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN GULF COAST TO 4 TO 7 FT FARTHER E...WITH HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE E. THE BACKDOOR-TYPE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH ALL AREAS E OF 90W BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVER REALLY MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE SW GULF. WITH THE CORE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING IN OVER THE NE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER IN THE DAY. FOR EXAMPLE...SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE LIKELY N OF 25N EXCEPT LOWER NEAR SHORE AND SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT IN THE SE TO 6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL S OF 25N E OF 90W BY THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THU...WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED TO THE S AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING. LONGER-TERM...A BRIEF SPELL OF N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE NE TO E BY EARLY SAT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IT WILL BE A CASE OF DEJA VU FOR MARINERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REBUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT S OF 28N E OF 90W AND 5 TO 8 FT FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 90W BY SAT MORNING. MODELS SHOW THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM SAT INTO SUN...BUT THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF SHOULD KEEP MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH MOST OF SUN. ALTHOUGH WINDS W OF 90W WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEE NEAR FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT FOR THE NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH SHOULD VEER E TO SE LATER SUN. E OF 90W...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE ...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR N CLOSER TO THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE W OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH 15N79W TO CENTRAL COSTA RICA AT THIS HOUR. BUOY AND SPOTTY SHIP DATA CONFIRM WINDS IN THIS RANGE...AS DID AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS WHICH SUGGEST UP TO 30 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. N OF 20N SEAS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT... WHILE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT 6 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SATELLITE PICTURES EVEN SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM S OF JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. MEANWHILE...NE TO E FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOW THAT A SECONDARY...ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS RACING THROUGH THE GULF AND SW N ATLC...THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THE STRONG N TO NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SHIP PJET REPORTING 35 KT WINDS. A QC OF THE SHIP REVEALS THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY HIGH BY ABOUT 6 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THE EXISTENCE OF NE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AS A CHILLY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY...WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE BLOWING WITH THE SAME VIGOR. DESPITE A SMALLER FETCH GENERATION AREA...THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO 8 TO 13 FT SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ...WITH THE SWELL GRADUALLY PROPAGATING WELL S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF NICARAGUA. EVEN SEAS OF UP TO 8 OR 9 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR AROUND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THEIR PEAK. LONGER-TERM...THE COVERAGE OF STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THU INTO FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY ITSELF BECOMES DIFFICULT TO FIND. A SUBTLE DIMINUTION TO THE WIND TOO SHOULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AROUND THIS PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS AVERAGING 20 KT WILL STILL BE COMMON. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF ON FRI...USHERING IN AN EVEN STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE IT INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT FROM N TO S FROM THE GULF AND SW N ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL STEEPEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WINDS WHICH WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AGAIN AND WILL SPREAD E TO COVER AREAS EVEN FARTHER E. THAT BEING SAID...THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEAS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER MOST AREAS W OF 70W BY EARLY SUN...WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT E OF 70W. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS IS EXPLICITLY SHOWING 35 KT WINDS AS OF YET...THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN. FINALLY...A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ALREADY FORMING OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST...WILL BEGIN ARRIVING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND EVENTUALLY THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING THU THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FT AT A MAXIMUM OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND NE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS. THU AND FRI THE BULK OF THE SWELL WILL BE ARRIVING FROM HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THE HIGHEST SWELL WILL HAVE PROPAGATED TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRI INTO SAT. SW N ATLC... SATELLITE PICTURES AND CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER A WIDE FETCH GENERATION AREA ARE GENERATING RAPIDLY BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SW N ATLC AT THIS HOUR...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 9 TO 15 FT SEAS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO THE EASTERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN GENERAL...20 TO 30 KT OF NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT...THOUGH A 0152 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED 30 TO NEAR 35 KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N75W. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A RATHER SHORT-FUSED GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS AREA IN THE NEXT PACKAGE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 9 TO 12 FT OFFSHORE THE E FLORIDA COAST IN THE GULF STREAM...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR AND N OF WEST PALM BEACH. AS THE SECONDARY FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE MAIN FRONT TODAY... COOL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE SW N ATLC. WINDS WILL BEGIN EASE FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BOTH AS A RESULT OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND AS THE STORM NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INCREDIBLE NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY. NOAA WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 TO 20 FT N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS BEHIND THE CONSOLIDATED FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF THE AREA. LONGER-TERM...WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH THU EXCEPT WELL TO THE S AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WHERE NE 20 KT WINDS COULD CONTINUE. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE LONG SINCE ABATED TO THE N...THE ASSOCIATED SWELL WILL CONTINUE ARRIVING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER THU. THE BULK OF THE SWELL WILL HAVE INTERSECTED THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER THU AND FRI...WITH 9 TO 12 FT SEAS AND LARGE BREAKERS ARRIVING FROM HISPANIOLA THROUGH PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS FRI MORNING ...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG NW TO N FLOW VEERING N TO NE. THIS WILL GIVE SEAS...WHICH WERE ONLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ...A CHANCE TO REBUILD TO 8 TO 13 FT LATER FRI AND SAT. WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A RATHER STEEP PRES GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BLOW FOR A PROLONGED TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEAS RATHER PEAKED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NE SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND EVEN REACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.