000 AGXX40 KNHC 181945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... THE PARTIAL EDGE OF A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT OVER THE SE PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF WITH A NE 25 KT WIND BARBS NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NE GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS AS OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE N-NE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE NW PORTION WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...AND DOWN TO 1 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA FL TO THE FAR NW GULF WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE GULF TONIGHT. NWP MODEL ARE IN CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES THAT SETTLES IN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR SURGES OF MODERATE N-NE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NE-E IN DIRECTION OVER WESTERN HALF SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL BE AT RATHER ELEVATED HEIGHTS OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING ONCE AGAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS NOAA WAVEWATCH INDICATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO INLAND THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST AFTER 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED N WINDS OF 25 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH THIS WAS ONLY A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N. NOAA BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE FRONT WILL HOLD IN ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR HAITI TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA BY WED MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PANAMA THU AND BECOMES DIFFUSED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FRI. N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH SEAS NOT SUBSIDING MUCH AT ALL...AND REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAXIMUM OF THE SEAS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. THE PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W IS BRINGING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS A SWATH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 11 TO 17N. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY WED MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES RETREATS NE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE W. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED ONCE AGAIN S OF 13N W OF 79W MAINLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA SE OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXETNDS FROM 31N62W TO E CUBA. A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXETNDS FROM 31N72W TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT WINDS ARE NW 20-30 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WINDS ARE NW TO N IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT N-NE 20-30 KT S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT TO 79W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT N OF 26N WHERE WINDS ARE S-SW 10 KT. SEAS THIS MORNING MAXED OUT TO 10 FT W OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP "A8HA3" JUST SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AT 1800 UTC. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND IT THROUGH WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO THE N OF THE FORECAST WATERS BASED ON UPDATED NWP MODEL GUIDANCE AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY AS IT DEVELOPS SINCE IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM FOR GALE WINDS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH S OF 31N OVER THE NE PORTION TONIGHT ON WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SLOW DOWN S OF 25N EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS FRI AND SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NW WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO LEAD THE ONSET OF THIS HIGH PRES AREA WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE SEAS...POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ...LATE FRI AND SAT WITH N WINDS OF POSSIBLY 20-30 KT OVER THE FAR W PART BY SAT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.