000 AGXX40 KNHC 171831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON NOV 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ON THE DECREASING TREND AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM BETWEEN 1100 AND 1230 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT WINDS ARE STRONGEST (NE 20-25 KT) OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE N-NE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE NW PORTION WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...AND DOWN TO 1 FT IN THE NW PORTION. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL DROP ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT S THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF...AND NE TO 20 KT OVER THE E PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW GULFS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED EVENING AS SUGGEST IN MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN SLIDE E OF THE AREA THU AND FRI AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NE PORTION LATE THU AND FRI...FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SE INTO THE E GULF BY SAT. THE PARENT STRONG HIGH MOVES E TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO INLAND THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC AGAIN REVEALED N-NE 25-30 KT WINDS NW OF THE FRONT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NOAA BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 ARE SHOWING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL HOLD IN ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH TUE NIGHT UNTIL A STRONGER AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA BY WED MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PANAMA THU AND BECOMES DIFFUSED DURING FRI. N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS NOT SUBSIDING MUCH AT ALL...AND REMAINING ANYWHERE FROM 7-10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE LONG 66W AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BRINGING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...AND OVER A SWATH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 11 TO 16N. THESE WINDS WERE STRONGER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES RETREATS NE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER TO THE W. SEAS IN THESE AREA HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4-6 FT. A WEAK STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N81W THIS MORNING BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THIS LOW SEPARATES NE-E TRADES FROM LIGHTER NW-N WINDS ALONG AND ADJACENT THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 13N W OF 78W MAINLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE HANG ON TO THE LOW NEAR THAT VICINITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY SHUNT IT E TO OVER S AMERICA IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW. SW N ATLC... A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE ZONE...AND IS ANALYZED AT 15 UTC TO EXTEND FROM 31N64W TO 25N70W ...THEN STATIONARY TO ACROSS E CUBA. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WINDS FOR THE MOST PARR HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR THE WATERS S OF 24N W OF THE FRONT WHERE THE DATA SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE NW TO N IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT S OF 26N WHERE WINDS BECOME NE-E IN DIRECTION. SEAS THIS MORNING MAXED OUT TO 10 FT W OF THE FRONT S OF 24N...BUT ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TUE. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN FROM 28N65W TO E CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT IN TO TUE MORNING AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND REACH FROM 31N71W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUE. NW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED ON SUN. THESE WINDS SHOULD KICK INTO THE FAR NW WATERS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUE AND TUE NIGHT GOING INTO WED AS THE FRONT CATCHES UP AND MERGES WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. WINDS SHOULD MAX OUT TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT N OF 28N WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK INSTANCE OF WINDS REACHING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NE PART N OF 30N. THIS IS INDICATED BY THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...CMC AND THE NAM....WHEREAS THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GALE WINDS STAYING N OF THE AREA WHICH IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND GUN MEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST. THE MERGED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PUSH E OF THE AREA N OF 25N...AND SLOW DOWN S OF 25N EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS FRI AND SAT AS HIGH PRES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NW WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO LEAD THE ONSET OF THIS HIGH PRES AREA WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE SEAS...POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE (UP TO 15 FT WED AND WED NIGHT PER UKMET WAVES AND THE FNMOC GUIDANCE)...USHERED INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ON SAT OVER THE NW PORTION. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.