000 AGXX40 KNHC 170651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG FRONT...WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION SAT...NOW WELL SE OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE ...STRONG HIGH PRES HAS BUILT INTO THE NW GULF...AND THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE CONDITIONS YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...A BROAD AREA OF NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 FLOW COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N...WITH WINDS MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE NW ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOREOVER...SEAS HAVE DRAMATICALLY SUBSIDED AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF TO 4 TO 7 FT FROM ABOUT 25N TO 28N...HIGHEST TO THE E. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING LIE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING A NEARLY SOLID AREA OF N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT FLOW S OF 25N E OF 90W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE SUBSIDED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 8 SEC S OF 25...AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS S OF 20N AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CURRENT PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS...WITH A N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW OVER THE SE HALF OF THE GULF AND LIGHTER 10 TO 15 KT WINDS FROM THE N TO NE PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBTLY SUBSIDE ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TUE MORNING AND SURGE S AND SE THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF BY EARLY WED. UNLIKE THE GALE EVENT FROM THE WEEKEND...THE EMPHASIS OF THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE FELT E OF 90W. IN FACT...A COMBINATION OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SUGGEST N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS E OF 90W LATER TUE INTO EARLY WED...WITH SEAS REBUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL S OF 26N E OF 90W BY WED MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS SHOULD GO PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED...THOUGH SOME NE WINDS COULD REACH 20 KT AT TIME AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT. LONGER-TERM...WED AND THU WILL SEE A RECOVERY ONCE AGAIN IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS OF A THIRD SHORTWAVE WHICH ATTEMPTS TO DIG IN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY HAS TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER AMPLITUDE TO THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FEATURE DIGGING MORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THAN INTO ANY PART OF THE GULF. THE 00Z GFS TAKES A MORE EXTREME VIEW BY FAILING TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE MUCH AT ALL AND INSTEAD KEEPING MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF INTO THE SW ATLC...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FEATURE WITH MUCH MORE WIND. A CONSENSUS OF THE BEST-PERFORMING MODEL SUGGESTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE OF SOME SORT EARLY FRI OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS...WITH THE BEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...MUCH LIKE THE EVENT FROM TUE THIS WEEK. ADMITTEDLY THOUGH...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS BELOW AVERAGE...GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DEEP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA SW THROUGH MOST OF HONDURAS AT THIS HOUR. NW OF THE FRONT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN HOWLING FOR SOME TIME ...WITH N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONG WINDS EXISTED S OF 20N NW OF THE FRONT...WITH THE SAME PASS SHOWING ONE WIND BARB TO 35 KT. NOAA BUOY 42056 SEEMS TO HAVE ESCAPED THE VERY STRONGEST OF WINDS...ONLY MEASURING 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS EARLY. HOWEVER...SEAS THERE HAVE BUILT TO NEARLY 10 FT AS OF 06Z...AND THE NOAA WAVEWATCH OUTPUT INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF 7 TO 11 FT SEAS MOSTLY S OF 21N. WITH NO INDICATION OF GALE CONDITIONS LINGERING...THE CURRENT WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE STRONG FLOW IS RELATED TO THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE N AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTIVE...LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS DID REVEAL SOME 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL E OF ABOUT 69W...BUT BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS SINCE ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL ARE THE RULE ACROSS THIS AREA. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CREEP ALONG TO THE SE...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N74W TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA MON EVENING. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW 20 TO 30 KT FROM THE N TO NE BUT WILL GENERALLY BE MARGINALLY LOWER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT S OF 20N W OF THE FRONT WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS N OF 20N...WHERE THE FETCH AREA IS A MORE LIMITED. WHERE THE SWELL ACCUMULATES THE MOST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MON. BY TUE...A SECONDARY FRONT DIVING IN FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT PATTERN AND COULD A RESURGENCE TO THE STRONG WINDS. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL RETURN WITH THE SAME VIGOR AS BEFORE BY TUE EVENING...WITH THE MERGING OF THE TWO FRONTS CAUSING A CONSOLIDATED FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FROM HAITI THROUGH MOST OF NICARAGUA BY WED MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK FROM 8 TO 13 FT IN N SWELL W OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD ALSO BLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE INTO WED...BUT THE LIMITED FETCH AREA MEAS THAT AT A MAXIMUM SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 8 FT. PERHAPS OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE IS THAT NORTHERLY 20 TO 30 KT WILL EVEN SEEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE OFFSHORE EASTERN NICARAGUA WED...WITH NORTHERLY SWELL PENETRATING ALL THE WAY S TO NORTHERN PANAMA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC MON...WITH TRADES DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT E OF 75W TUE AND WED. LONGER-TERM...THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD STALL OUT FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TO NORTHERN PANAMA LATE THU OR EARLY FRI...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SWELL SHOULD KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 6 TO 10 FT OR 7 TO 11 FT S OF 20N W OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY FRI...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE OTHER PIECE OF NEWS IS THAT SIGNIFICANT NW TO N SWELL PROPAGATING FROM OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD REACH THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THU AND FRI...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND ALL ADJACENT ATLC PASSAGES. SW N ATLC... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS LEAVING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO SE CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS LOSING ITS STEAM THOUGH AND IS ONLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL PROGRESS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THOUGH A COMBINATION QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS STILL INDICATING N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS...THOUGH SEAS CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA NE COAST HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 7 FT. NORTHERLY SWELL PASSING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AGAINST THE GULF STREAM HAVE CAUSED SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT IN MOST AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE...S TO SW 20 KT WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT...THOUGH THESE WINDS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED SINCE EARLIER. SHIP DGNB JUST N OF 30N E OF THE FRONT CONFIRMS SOUTHERLY 20 KT WINDS. E OF THE FRONT...A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT BECOMING MORE SE TO S WITH LATITUDE. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE ESTIMATED E OF THE BAHAMAS E OF THE FRONT WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. IN THE SHORT-TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE MOST AREAS W OF THE FRONT MON..EXCEPT S OF 25N. OVER THIS AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COMMON...ALONG WITH NE SWELL PENETRATING THE BAHAMA CHAIN AND MAKING IT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBAN COAST. EARLY TUE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND FROM THE NW AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WIND ALL AREAS W OF THE FRONT...ESP LATER TUE AND WED. THIS EVENT...UNLIKE THE LAST ONE...WILL FEATURE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE FETCH GENERATION AREA AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW TO N WINDS. AS AR RESULT...NOT ONLY WILL NW TO N 20 TO 30 KT WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA W OF THE FRONT DURING THE TIME...BUT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 1O TO 19 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS WED...HIGHEST NE. THE NW TO N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LONGER-TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE THU...EXCEPT WELL TO THE S BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND FROM THE NW AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIND AND BUILDING SEAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. AS OF THIS WRITING...A MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NW WATERS FRI MORNING AND DELIVER AT LEAST NW TO N 20 KT WINDS BEHIND IT BECOMING N TO NE...WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 6 TO 10 FT LATER ON FRI. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.