000 AGXX40 KNHC 160628 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS... WITH FRONT ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND E OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A COMBINATION OF BUOY...C-MAN...AND SHIP REPORTS AS WELL AS 0254 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUGGESTS THAT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE HOWL OVER A LARGE PART OF THE GULF...WITH 25 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN FACT...THE HIGHEST WINDS ANYWHERE IN THE GULF RIGHT NOW ARE LIKELY S OF 21N. WAVE HEIGHTS DRAMATICALLY BUILT EARLIER TODAY AND ARE STILL 6 TO 10 FT N OF 25N EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE SEAS OF 10 TO 17 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED S OF 25N EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TO BE SURE...BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W REPORTED 17 FT SEAS JUST A FEW HOURS AGO...WHICH ARE NOW SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN N SWELL. ONLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF HAVE THE STRONG WINDS YET TO ARRIVE...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AND BUILD RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOW THAT THE GALE EVENT IS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE GULF. IN FACT...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...GENERALLY RUNNING FROM 4 TO 7 OR MAYBE UP TO 8 FT...WHILE 8 TO 12 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE SE HALF. THE TREND TOWARD LOWER WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MON...THOUGH N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH SEAS UP TO 8 OR 9 FT. LONGER-TERM...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS POSTS...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD DELIVER A SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR COMING IN FROM THE NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. UNLIKE THE CURRENT GALE EVENT...THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS NEXT ONE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE E OF 90W...WHERE NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SHOULD BLOW OVER AREAS FARTHEST EAST. SEAS...WHICH ONLY JUST BEGUN TO SUBSIDE...WILL REBUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER THE SE GULF WATERS...WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE PAST EVENT. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WED AND THU...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO FURTHER DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY. DURING THIS RELATIVE CALM...NE TO E WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS... WHILE SIMILAR STRENGTH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS GENERALLY N OF 28N. HOWEVER...THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF FRONTS SHOULD REACH THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...BRINGING WITH IT A FRESH ROUND OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH ...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY BE THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE EVENTS WITH ONLY A SUBTLE RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS GOING INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING FROM THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE N AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTIVE EASTERLY WAVE TO THE S. ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT DATA IS MISSING...AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE MOVED FROM TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTS NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF 68W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 7 TO 10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC INCLUDING THE NE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS THE EASTERLY WAVE DAMPENS WHILE MOVING OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC...GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH GREATLY RELAXED TRADES LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU. OTHERWISE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF WATERS EARLIER TODAY IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE SHORTWAVE INTRODUCING THE FRONT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SHOULD DEPOSIT THE FRONT FROM SE CUBA TO HONDURAS BY THIS EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF N TO NE WINDS ENGULFING THE WATERS W OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN FACT...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND GUSTY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS...ESP AS SWELL FROM THE GULF CREEPS ENTERS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED GOING INTO MON...WITH THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS EXPANDING AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SE...EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE HONDURAN/NICARAGUAN BORDER BY MON EVENING. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT OR 7 TO 11 FT APPEAR MOST LIKELY W OF THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EVENTUALLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LONGER-TERM...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC WILL REINVIGORATE THE WIND EVENT...POSSIBLY WITH EVEN MORE VIGOR THAN BEFORE. NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY SHOWS GALE CONDITIONS AS OF THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FURTHER INSPECTION OF FUTURE MODEL DATA MAY EVENTUALLY YIELD A SHORT-FUSED GALE WARNING FOR PART OF THIS AREA LATER TUE INTO EARLY WED. IN THE VERY LEAST...N TO NE 20 TO 30 KT SEEM ALMOST UNENDING DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND SE...AS THE PRIMARY FRONT ADVANCES FROM A CENTRAL HISPANIOLA- SOUTHERN NICARAGUA OR NORTHERN PANAMA LINE WED MORNING. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SE...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE FROM THE NE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT. EVEN NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KT SHOULD OOZE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER TUE AND WED...WITH SWELL FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEEPING SOUTHWARD THERE. SOME RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED THU...WITH WINDS AND SEAS COMING DOWN QUITE A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME...NW TO N SWELL FROM THE WESTERN ATLC WILL BEGIN REACHING THE ATLC PASSAGES NE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER ON THU...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT POSSIBLE. EVEN LONGER-TERM...THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ARRIVING BY THE WEEKEND COULD CAUSE A HUGE WIND EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. STAY TUNED. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NW PART OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 31N75W THROUGH SE FLORIDA AS OF THIS WRITING. BUOY AND C-MAN DATA W OF THE FRONT INDICATE A RAPID RISE TO NW WINDS...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 5 TO 8 FT N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. E OF THE FRONT...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN DRAWN NW AND N AND APPEARS TO BE MERGING WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SE. NEAR WHERE THE TWO ARE MERGING...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF A LINE RUNNING FROM 31N74W TO 25N75.5W. WITH THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA NOT TO MENTION THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE W...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N...WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KT. EVEN THE ENHANCED GRADIENT FARTHER S AND E IS CONTRIBUTING TO E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY. AS THE SHORTWAVE INTRODUCING THE FRONT LIFTS OUT SUN...THE FRONT SHOULD COME CLOSE TO STALLING FROM THE FAR NE WATERS THROUGH SE CUBA. BEFORE THAT TIME...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE LOWER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS PUSH INTO THE WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT MON...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N TO NE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOW WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM NW OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY S OF 27N. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN N SWELL SHOULD TURN INTO NE SWELL...WITH THE SWELL OOZING THROUGH THE PASSAGES IN THE BAHAMAS AND MAKING IT TO THE CUBAN COAST. LONGER-TERM...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY TUE MORNING AND RAPIDLY MARCH SE...BRINGING WITH IT AN EVEN STRONGER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO ALL AREAS W OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY FADE INTO THE PRIMARY FRONT AND CAUSE THE PRIMARY FRONT TO MOVE FORWARD A BIT ...LYING FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA BY TUE EVENING. 20 TO 30 KT NW TO N FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD...BUT THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NE OF THE AREA SHOULD CAUSE A LARGE FETCH AREA OF STRONG WINDS OFF THE U.S. E COAST TUE INTO WED...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE CONSIDERABLY NW TO N SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO REACH 9 TO 14 FT TUE NIGHT AND MAX OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FT WED MORNING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE DRASTICALLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 28-29N. HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ENORMOUS NW TO N SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. A THIRD COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FAR NW WATERS WITH MORE WIND AND BUILDING SEAS LATE THU OR EARLY FRI...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE THE W CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF NW TO N SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING TIL 12Z ...GMZ082 FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.