000 AGXX40 KNHC 140658 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE SE CONUS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES COVERING THE NW WATERS. A LARGE AREA OF SE TO S 10 TO 15 KT FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF ABOUT 88W... WITH A 2324 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING S 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER AN AREA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SEAS OVER THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE E GULF ZONE. ELSEWHERE...E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT COVERS EXCEPT S TO SW 10 KT OR LESS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FT CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST. SATELLITE PICTURES AND UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MOSTLY IN A LINE EXTENDING FROM SW OF HOUSTON TO AROUND 24N94W. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE FORMS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TRACK IT QUICKLY NE INTO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TRANSIENT AND ILL-DEFINED...THE GFS SHOWS S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT THIS MORNING ...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF STARTING FRI NIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION AMPLIFIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT AND BRIEFLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES LATE SAT/EARLY SUN BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE BEST TIMING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF WATERS AFTER 00Z BUT BEFORE 03Z...FOLLOWED BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS. IN FACT...NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS 06Z SAT SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT NW OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 20N97W SAT 12Z. SEAS WILL HAVE BUILT TO 6 TO 10 FT OVER THE NW WATERS...WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE BEEN BLOWING FOR JUST UNDER 12 HOURS STRAIGHT. HAVE INDICATED GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TOMORROW MORNING AND HAVE ESPECIALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF BY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING NORTHERLY 30 TO 35 KT WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN RAPIDLY SWEEP SE...PASSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. STILL...NW TO N 25 TO 35 KT WINDS SHOULD COVER MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE GULF INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT OVER THE SW GULF BY THAT TIME. AS QUICKLY AS THE EVENT BUILDS...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SUN FROM NW TO SE. IN FACT...SEAS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE FAR N BY SUN EVENING...WHILE 6 TO 10 FT SEAS IN N SWELL COVER MUCH OF THE SE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LONGER-TERM...WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE MON AND INTO EARLY TUE UNTIL A SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE N CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SECONDARY FEATURE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT AGAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE AFTERNOON AND 6 TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL OVER A LARGE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS THIS TIME WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID REVEAL NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER NEARLY ALL AREA E OF 70W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FT. CALMER CONDITIONS EXIST W OF 70W...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT S OF 17N E OF 80W. WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE THE RULE EXCEPT S OF 18N E OF 80W...WHERE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN E SWELL CONTINUE. IN THE SHORT-TERM...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NE SHOULD AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING LATE FRI...ALL IN THE WAKE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN FACT...MODELS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT MOSTLY E OF 68W DURING THE DAY SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL AND 6 TO 10 FT IN NE ATLC AND MONA PASSAGES. IT APPEARS THAT THE WORST OF THE BRIEF WIND EVENT WILL BE OVER BY SUN BUT LINGERING NE SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...WITH SEAS STILL TO 8 FT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND NE ATLC PASSAGES. TO THE WEST...THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD DESCEND INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SUN MORNING AND THEN PARK ITSELF FROM EASTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT OVER A LARGE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND MAKE INTO THE NW WATERS. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SW WATERS...WHERE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE. LONGER-TERM...WITH ONE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND ADDITIONAL COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A SECONDARY...REINFORCING SHOT... EXPECT THE WIND MACHINE TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW WATERS W OF THE FRONT RIGHT INTO LATE TUE. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT GENERALLY WITH SOME POSSIBLE 30 KT WINDS. SEAS OVER A LARGE EXPANSE WILL LIE BETWEEN 7 AND 11 FT. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...QUIKSCAT...SHIP...AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT WINDS COVERING ALL AREAS N OF 10N AND 10 TO 15 KT S OF 10N. SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL N OF 18N TO 6 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 10N. SEA OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE THE RULE S OF 10N. IN THE SHORT-TERM...MODELS SHOW LOTS OF WIND OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 53W S OF 15N. ALTHOUGH JUST E OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...QUIKSCAT SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI. HIGHEST SEAS ARE SLATED FOR SAT...WITH A LARGE AREA OF 9 TO POSSIBLY 12 FT SEAS N OF 12N IN NE SWELL...WITH E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN AND EVEN MORE SO ON TUE AND WED...WITH SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY FOLLOWING SUIT. SW N ATLC...A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 26N64W IS MOVING ALONG TO THE W FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDERNEATH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ALMOST TO 30N A LARGE EXPANSE OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IS NOTED IN A EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. NOAA WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS 8 TO 12 FT SEAS FROM 21N TO 28N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CORROBORATING THIS IS NOAA BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W...REPORTING 8 FT SEAS AND NOAA BUOY 41046 NEAR 23.9N70.9W...REPORTING NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI. OTHERWISE ... INDICATES SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS N OF 29N W OF 76W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF SAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SE CONUS COAST AND THE NW WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE WITH SE TO S WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON...EXCEPT S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR NW. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN MORNING...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD START BLOWING BEHIND IT WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS DEVELOPING W OF THE FRONT BY SUN MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IS ALSO LIKELY MOSTLY N OF 27N. SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT...HIGHEST N...WILL BE BUILDING BY SUN MORNING. LONGER-TERM...THE STRONG FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA MON MORNING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DRAMATICALLY DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING LATER SUN AND INTO MON. STILL THOUGH...LINGERING N TO NE SWELL COULD KEEP SEAS UP TO 8 OR 9 FT NW OF THE FRONT INTO MON. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR COMING OFF THE SE CONUS COAST TUE AFTERNOON WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SHOT OF W TO NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AND SPREAD SE INTO TUE NIGHT. SEAS WILL THEN REBUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT EARLY ON UP TO 9 TO 13 FT OVER NW WATERS EARLY WED MORNING. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...GMZ080 AND GMZ082 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.