000 AGXX40 KNHC 081913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC... THE GFDL IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRYING PALOMA THROUGH CUBA AND INTO THE SW N ATLC. ADJUSTMENTS TO GFDL WAVE WATCH WERE MADE TOWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE IN TUNE WITH THE SLOWER FORECAST FOR PALOMA EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THEN DIFFER FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR PALOMA AS IN ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS CARRIES THE SYSTEM FARTHER NE BEFORE TURNING IT BACK TO THE S AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TROUGH. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GFS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC LOW TRACK. GULF OF MEXICO... QSCAT FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A LARGER REGION OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM CEDAR KEY...FL TO 25N89W. THERE ARE SURFACE OBS TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS...SO THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN SUPPORT OF THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS THE 20 TO 25 KT OBS JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FL. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON BUILDING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF AND BRINGING BACK STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TX INTO THE NW GULF ON WED/THU...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE SLOWEST SOLN...THE UKMET. THE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SO ITS SOLN IS SUSPECT. A SLOWER SOLN THAN THE GFS...A NOD TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND UKMET...WAS USED FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE FORECAST. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N BETWEEN 76N AND 79N...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.