000 AGXX40 KNHC 071917 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 9M EST FRI NOV 07 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML ...ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN... HURCN PALOMA...NEAR 18.4N 81.3W WITH WINDS 85 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT AT 1PM EST...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CUBA AS A HURRICANE ON SUN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE THE MAIN SFC LOW CENTER NE THROUGH CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS...BUT ITS SOLN IS CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH NO ISSUES IN THE MANNER IN WHICH IS CARRIES THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST SAT...THE GFS WAS USED AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. SPECIFICS FOR MARINE FORECAST FOR PALOMA RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFDL AND ITS WAVE WATCH SOLN. HOWEVER...THE GFDL SOLUTION IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCORDINGLY. IN NE WATERS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 30N40W. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE INTERACTION OF THE MAIN LOW WITH THIS WAVE CAUSES THE GFS TO BE THE MOST SW SOLUTION HERE. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS ON THE GFS INSISTENCE TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY WAVE HERE...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...A BLEND OF WHICH REPRESENTS A MODEL CONSENSUS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF. IN THIS CASE...SAW LITTLE REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS SOLN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THE SE GULF TOWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR PALOMA WHOSE WINDS OVER 20 KT WILL BLEED NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE W GULF ON MON...THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MOVING THE TROUGHING EAST. WITH THE MODELS ADVERTISING MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE FASTER GFS SOLN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.