000 AGXX40 KNHC 061918 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD 20N AND THEN MAKES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST INTO CUBA ON SUN. THE 12Z GFDL VERSION OF THE WAVE WATCH NOW SEEMS TO RECOGNIZE THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO CARRY THE SYSTEM INTO CUBA...BUT OTHERWISE IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK...SO ITS SOLN WILL BE USED AS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON OFFSHORE PACKAGE. THE GFS IS EVEN FASTER STILL. ELSEWHERE...THE MODELS AGREE ON RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TX IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST BY FRI MORNING AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE FL BIG BEND BY SAT MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON WINDS IN THE 20 KT RAGE OVER THE N CNTRL GULF SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE TX COAST TUE. THE MODELS AGREE ON BUMPING UP THE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF IN THE ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH STARTING SUN NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...THE FRINGES OF PALOMA WILL BRING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TO THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FL STRAITS. WILL ADJUST GFDL AND ITS WAVE WATCH APPROPRIATELY TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOR MARINE GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE LOW OFF THE MID ATL COAST WILL WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE N WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH N FL AND INTO NW WATERS ON SAT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH PALOMA AS IT EMERGES FROM CUBA AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON/TUE. THE GFS AND ECMWF STREAM SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH PALOMA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOCUSES ON A SLOWER SOLUTION...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THAT DIRECTION TO THE GFS. IN THE EASTERN ATLC...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY S OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 30N42W. IT WRAPS THIS ENERGY ALONG THE SE SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW...MAKING FOR A BROADER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SFC SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RELIED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT NOGAPS AND ITS WAVE SOLN HERE. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W ...AMZ082 AND AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.