000 AGXX40 KNHC 051912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... NE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NE GULF AS LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC SHIFTS NE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE SE RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD E LATER TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE REGION BY SAT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OR LIFTS BACK N SUN. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY BECAUSE THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ZONALLY ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER THAN DIGGING SE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS NEAR 14N82W MOVING W-NW AT 4 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THIS AREA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS FEATURE HAS NOW A HIGH POTENTIAL (GREATER THAN 50%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NE AND ACCELERATE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RECENT QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES REVEAL 20-25 KT WINDS GENERALLY W OF AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N81W. FOR NOW...WE ARE KEEPING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 12 FT WED THROUGH FRI. THIS FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS SFC LOW. SW N ATLC... OCCLUDED LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA NEAR THE NC COAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO 27N65W AND A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N72W TO 22N75W. SFC OBS AND A PARTIAL QSCAT PASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E TO SE 20-30 KT WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISHING LATER TODAY. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH THU DUE TO NLY SWELL. BROAD NW WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT AND IT WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW...WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS SUN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER GR/JC. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.