000 AGXX40 KNHC 050653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML GULF OF MEXICO... NE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT OVER THE NE GULF AS LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC SHIFTS NNE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE SE RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD E LATER TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI (SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED). THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE REGION BY SAT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT STALLS OR LIFTS BACK N SUN. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY BECAUSE THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ZONALLY ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER THAN DIGGING SE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 14N82W HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE S AND W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO SPREAD OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 74W-84W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS FORECAST...THE LOW HAS BEEN ON A SLOW N-NW TRACK AND THAT CONTINUED MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NE AND ACCELERATE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RECENT QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES REVEAL 20-25 KT WINDS GENERALLY W OF AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH LINE FROM 9N81W TO 19N80W. GIVEN THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND OBSERVED INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...EVENING SHIFT INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TO 20-30 KT AND 7-11 FT IN PRODUCTS OVER THE NW ZONE. WILL LIKELY KEEP SIMILAR WORDING IN NEXT PACKAGE. THE ONLY OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS (E 15-20 KT) ARE CONFINED TO THE N PORTION OF THE TROP N ATLC ZONE AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC... OCCLUDED LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA NEAR THE NC COAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 27N65W AND A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA. SFC OBS AND A PARTIAL QSCAT PASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E TO SE 20-30 KT WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT. NW TO N 20-25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED EARLIER OFF THE N FL COAST...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE THROUGH THU DUE TO NLY SWELL. BROAD NW WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT AND IT WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW...WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS SUN. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.