000 AGXX40 KNHC 041924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... COMPLEX SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N76W WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH 28N67W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N76W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SFC OBS REVEAL EASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT NORTH OF 21N65W 26N75W...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS. THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WITH IT AND THE BELT OF STRONG WINDS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION COMPLETELY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRACK. A BROAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL. A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATE SATURDAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO... NE WINDS REMAIN 15-20 KT N OF 26N E OF 90W ENHANCED BY A SFC TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT (10-15 KT) NE TO E WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SW WATERS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT. WINDS ARE E TO SE OVER THE NW GULF ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD E WED AND THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE GULF FRI AND THE EAST WATERS SAT. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...NOTABLY LOWER THAN A DAY OR TWO AGO...LIKELY BECAUSE THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ZONALLY ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER THAN DIGGING SE AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE QUASI- STATIONARY NEAR 12N82W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO EASTERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NWP MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DRIFT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO IN THE FORECAST. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MT. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.