000 AGXX40 KNHC 040656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST TUE NOV 04 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML SW N ATLC... COMPLEX SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N76W WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING E THROUGH 25N65W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WELL DEFINED TROUGH LINE RUNS NW FROM THE LOW TO 31N78W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SFC OBS REVEAL A BELT OF ELY 20-30 KT WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE TROUGH LINE. QSCAT DATA ACTUALLY SHOWED SEVERAL 35+ KT WIND VECTORS...HOWEVER ALL OF THEM WERE FLAGGED DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS. A JASON-1 ALTIMETER PASS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT IN THIS REGION...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE SURROUNDING BUOY OBS AND THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF THE WAVE WATCH MODEL. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NWD TRACK...THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT WITH IT AND THE BELT OF STRONG WINDS SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WED. BROAD SWEEP OF LIGHT NW WINDS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OVER THE AREA LATE WED AND THU WITH RESIDUAL NLY SWELL. LINGERING SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ZONE FRI. SW WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... NE WINDS REMAIN 15-20 KT N OF 26N E OF 90W ENHANCED BY A SFC TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT (10-15 KT) NE TO E WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SW WATERS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT. WINDS ARE E TO SE OVER THE NW GULF ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD E WED AND THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE GULF FRI AND THE EAST WATERS SAT. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...NOTABLY LOWER THAN A DAY OR TWO AGO...LIKELY BECAUSE THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ZONALLY ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER THAN DIGGING SE AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N80W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEAL WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD SFC CYCLONIC TURNING. CONVECTION IS SPARSE AROUND THE CENTER BUT IS RATHER STRONG AND NUMEROUS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 78W-82W. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...WINDS APPEAR LIGHT AROUND THE LOW ITSELF BUT REMAIN N TO NE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO ERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NWP MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A N-NW DRIFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO IN THE FORECAST. NE SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED...BASED ON WAVE PERIOD DATA...OVER THE TROP N ATLC WATERS AND THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MODEST NE SWELL TRAIN WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OVER 6 FT IN SPOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.