000 AGXX40 KNHC 031818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST MON NOV 03 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. EFFECTIVE TODAY...NOVEMBER 3...THE RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS INCLUDES 24...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..SURFACE FORECAST AND PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML SW N ATLC... A SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE NEAR 23N76W WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1012 MB PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 31N79W. AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1038 MB HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH RES SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SFC DATA INDICATE SUSTAINED E WINDS OF 25 KT N OF 25N E OF 77W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT AT BUOY 44004. NOW THAT A SFC LOW HAS INDEED DEVELOPED THE QUESTION IS HOW THE VARIOUS NWP MODELS HANDLE ITS EVOLUTION. OVERALL THE MODELS INITIALIZE THE SYS WELL AND ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SYS NWD TO NEAR 31N75W BY 00Z WED. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS EXIT OUT OF THE AREA. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT DOES NOT LATCH UNTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER LIKE THE OTHER MODELS. REGARDLESS OF THE GFS OUTLIER STATUS THE FOCUS IS ON THE AREA OF GRADIENT WINDS N OF THE LOW AND A NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT WHICH ARE STILL FCST TO REMAIN IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10-14 FT LATE TUE. THESE WINDS EXIT THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA BY WED. BROAD SWEEP OF LIGHT NW WINDS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OVER THE AREA LATE WED AND THU WITH RESIDUAL NLY SWELL. LINGERING SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ZONE FRI. SW WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SAT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NE WATERS WITH HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOYS SHOWING 15-20 KT N OF 27N E OF 89W. THIS INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEAS IN THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT (10-15 KT) NE TO E WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SW WATERS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SE OVER THE NW GULF ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD E WED AND THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. NWP MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE FRONT WITH THE FRONT ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE GULF N OF 29N BY LATE FRI. BY LATE SAT THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM W-CENTRAL FL TO 25N90W TO 278N97W. IN ADDITION NWP MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NW WINDS OF 20 KT CONFINED TO THE NE GULF SAT IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST CAA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N81W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEAL A WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD SFC CYCLONIC TURNING. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND THE LOW ITSELF...BUT REMAIN N TO NE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA GENERALLY TO THE W OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 21N77W. TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FAIRLY LIMITED NEAR THE LOW AT THE MOMENT. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS IT LIES IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. NWP MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A NW DRIFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO IN THE FORECAST. A FORTUITOUS JASON ALTIMETER PASS AT 1200 UTC AND BUOY DATA STILL INDICATED NE SWELL IS STILL ELEVATING SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND TO 6 FT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.