000 AGXX40 KNHC 030627 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON NOV 03 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN SFC TROUGH ALONG 75W...STALLED FRONT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE ZONE AND A 1037 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N E OF 77W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT AT BUOY 44004. BIG QUESTION IN THE FORECAST IS IN REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW (ALONG THE CURRENT TROUGH) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL FORM...HOWEVER...THEY APPEAR TO HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S RUNS. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW FORMS TONIGHT OR TUE WITH E WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ...POSSIBLY GALE FORCE...TO THE N OF THE ASSOCIATED DVLPG WARM FRONT TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT/WED THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH OR WEAK FRONT DRIFTING E ACROSS THE ZONE. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE TRAILING TROUGH...N SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS QUITE ELEVATED THRU AT LEAST WED OVER THE N WATERS. GULF OF MEXICO... NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NE WATERS WITH BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOWING 20 KT N OF 27N E OF 87W. THIS INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SFC TROUGH NEAR/OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6 FT AT NE GULF BUOY 42036. FAIRLY LIGHT (10-15 KT) NE TO E WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SW WATERS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SE OVER THE FAR NW GULF ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD E WED AND THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRI WITH NLY 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N81W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEAL WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD SFC CYCLONIC TURNING. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND THE LOW ITSELF...BUT REMAIN NE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE LOW. TSTM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND FAIRLY LIMITED NEAR THE LOW AT THE MOMENT. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (20-50%) OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT LIES IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A NW DRIFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WE ARE FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO IN THE FORECAST. NE SWELL IS STILL ELEVATING SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND TO 6 FT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.