000 AGXX40 KNHC 021859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST SUN NOV 02 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM 25N65W TO SE CUBA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SW N ATLC AND FLORIDA INDICATE A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF THE FRONT TO 30N76W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE FRONT AND A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC STATES IS PRODUCING ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST THE ZONE E OF 76W. SEVERAL PLATFORMS...BUOY 41046 AND SHIP WGJT ARE REPORTING 9-11 FT SEAS...STILL INDICATING THE NWW3 MAY BE A TAD LOW WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS. MAIN STORY THIS FCST PACKAGE IS NWP INSISTENCE ON DEVELOPING LOW PRES JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS GENERALLY NEAR 27N76W BETWEEN 18Z MON-00Z TUE AND MOVING IT NWD TO 31N BY TUE NIGHT. UKMET/CMC AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS ARE THE FASTEST IN MOVING THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FORMING THE SYSTEM FURTHER N. THE ECMWF/NOGAPS AND NAM DEVELOP THE SYS FURTHER S AND HENCE KEEP THE SYSTEM IN THE AREA LONGER. THE LOW MOVES NWD AGAINST A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC WHICH RESULTS IN STRONG E TO SE WINDS WELL N OF THE LOW. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ALL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 25-30 KT WINDS. THE CMC AND THE LOW RES NOGAPS INDICATE 35-40 KT WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FORM ITS EARLIER AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF SUGGESTING GALE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT THE LOW HAS YET TO FORM WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY BE SLICING THINGS A BIT THIN HERE...HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR HIGHER GUSTS AS A CYA. AS LOW MOVES N OF AREA WED THROUGH FRI NW WINDS AND SWELL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 27N. GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK SE RETURN FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE E GULF WATERS WHERE 15 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION TO THE PRESS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONT IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC. SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-6 FT IN THE STRONGER FLOW AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. AS PRECURSOR CONDITIONS FOR LOW PRES TAKE SHAPE OVER THE W ATLC TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE BASICALLY UNAFFECTED ELSEWHERE. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS TUE AND INCREASES TO 15-20 KT WED AND A STEADY 20 KT THU. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM E-CENTRAL GULF TO 22N97W BY LATE FRI WITH NLY WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 11N80W. HIGH RES QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1044 UTC INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF THE TROUGH. WINDS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HOWEVER LOW PRES NEAR 11N80W IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW TO N THROUGH THE WEEK TOWARD NICARAGUA...STILL IN LINE WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. NE SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE N TROP N ATLC WATERS AND TO 6 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MON AND MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.