000 AGXX40 KNHC 020605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 02 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED FRONT FROM 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND A 1028 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER AND OFF THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE FRONT. BUOY 41046 IS REPORTING 10 FT SEAS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE RUNNING 1-2 FT LOW. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE N OF THE BAHAMAS LATE SUN AND MON. THE FORCING FOR THIS LOW LIKELY CONSISTS OF A FRAGMENT OF THE CURRENT FRONT OBTAINING SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIE N OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MON AND TUE. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE...WITH ALMOST ALL SOLUTIONS SHOWING 25-30 KT (EVEN THE LOWER RES MODELS). GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SUGGESTING GALE CONDITIONS. WHILE A GALE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WOULD RATHER SEE SIGNS OF THE LOW FORMING BEFORE ADVERTISING A WARNING. STAY TUNED. GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE SE AND S MIDDLE WATERS WHERE 15-20 KT IS STILL LIKELY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN OLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-6 FT IN THE STRONGER FLOW AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUN AND MON...WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE BASICALLY UNAFFECTED ELSEWHERE. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS TUE AND INCREASES TO 15-20 KT WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...LIKELY TO ENTER THE REGION THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STALLED LINGERING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MAINLY 15-20 KT N TO NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH WITH A FEW FLAGGED 25 KT VECTORS. WINDS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. ISOBARIC PATTERN IS SUGGESTING BROAD LOW PRES CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INDEED QSCAT AND SFC OBS SUPPORT BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/NOGAPS WHICH BASICALLY DRIFTS THE WEAK LOW WNW-NW TOWARD NICARAGUA THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM N-NW TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NE SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE N TROP N ATLC WATERS AND TO 6 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.