000 AGXX40 KNHC 011755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER ALONG MID-ATLC SEABOARD AND STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH AT SE CORNER OF BASIN PRODUCING 20 KT NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA S OF 28N. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX DIGGING SE ALONG MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 78W ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORTEX SUN NIGHT EVENTUALLY BUILDING LOW PRES OFF SE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIVING IT N-NE. LOW PRES INTENSIFIES WITH STRONGEST WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ON N AND NE QUADRANTS... THEN WRAP AROUND NW AND W QUADRANTS ONCE LOW PRES GETS N OF 31N. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK OF LOW PRES BUT FORECAST RELIES ON GFS WHICH AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST REALISTIC...BUT AGGRESSIVE...OF ALL SOLUTIONS AND WAS FIRST TO BRING SCENARIO INTO FORECAST. GULF OF MEXICO... ELY WIND FLOW ON SOUTHERLY PERIPHERY OF RIDGE OVER SE STATES DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. MINOR SPILLAGE OF NE WINDS FROM LOW PRES OFF N FLORIDA COAST IMPACT NE CORNER TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH SE TEXAS COAST BY THU AND VEERS STRENGTHENING WINDS SOUTH. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS W OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA WEAKENS AS PRES PATTERN FLATTENS WITH 1010 LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN TROUGH ALONG 78W. SOUTHERNMOST LOW PRES DRIFTS W INTO NICARAGUA THU WITH RAIN AS ITS MOST CRITICAL CONCERN LEAVING WRN CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE WINDS. ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC REMAIN UNDER ELY WIND FLOW AND MODERATE SWELLS SPILLING THROUGH LESSER ANTILLES PASSAGES. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.