000
AGXX40 KNHC 010544
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES ALONG THE NORTH 
CAROLINA COAST AND A STALLED WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE SE CORNER 
OF THE ZONE...IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA S OF ABOUT 28N. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND AS HIGH PRES 
SHIFTS NE. BEYOND THAT...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NW WATERS. MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW FORMING OFF THE 
FLORIDA COAST ON SUN/MON AND THEN MOVING N OR NE OF THE AREA TUE 
AND WED. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW...THE 
MAIN FORCING ELEMENT...IS ALREADY DIGGING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY UNIFORM NE/E FLOW LIES ACROSS THE GULF ON THE S PERIPHERY 
OF A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. STRONGEST WINDS...AROUND 
20 KT...ARE BLOWING OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS WITH 
WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN 
TO 10-15 KT EVERYWHERE BY SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE...AND THEN 
TURN N TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EAST WATERS 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER THE W ATLC 
(DISCUSSED ABOVE). THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
APPROACH THE NW WATERS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A SOLID AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH 
PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN OLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA. HIGHEST SEAS ARE 10-12 FT IN THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS 
WEEKEND AND BECOME 10-15 KT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY 
DISSIPATES. NE TO E 10-15 KT FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA AND LITTLE CHANGE OR EVEN SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...DUE IN PART TO LOW PRES FORMATION N OF 
THE AREA. N/NE SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS THE N 
PORTION OF THE TROP N ATLC AND TO 8 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN 
PASSAGES TODAY BUT SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.