000 AGXX40 KNHC 311729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES 1036 MB STATIONARY OVER MID ATLC SEABOARD TIGHTENS GRADIENT W OF DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE PART OF BASIN PRODUCING STRONG WINDS S OF 27N. SWELL TRAINS...WELL HANDLED BY NWW3 SOLUTION...SLAM AGAINST NRN COAST OF BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES ISLAND CHAIN. HIGH PRES WEAKENS AS BEYOND TUE AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES ITS NRN FRINGES...BUT MAIN FLOW PATTERN ALOFT REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL BETWEEN 20N-30N. AIR MASS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE W OF FRONT WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION. GFS...NOGAPS AND MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 78W MON THEN SHIFT WEAK LOW PRES CENTER N-NE TUE N OF 31N. STILL UNCERTAIN OF THIS SCENARIO BUT GIVE SOME REASONABLE DOUBT CONSIDERING EVEN NAM MAKES WEAK TROUGH ALONG 78W THEN DRIFT IT W BY TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... STRONG WINDS W OF FRONT FROM W HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA WEAKEN BY LATE SAT AND SUN AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. MODERATE E SWELLS STILL AFFECT TROPICAL ATLC ZONE UNDER MODERATE E WINDS BUT WITH VERY LONG FETCH. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 73W CAN NO LONGER BE DEFINED...SO HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM ANALYSIS. ATLC SWELLS SEEP THROUGH MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES INTO AN OTHERWISE UNDISTURBED CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER ERN SEABOARD PRODUCING FRESH BREEZE OVER GULF WATERS...BUT WINDS FROM ATLC SPILL ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO GULF S OF 26N E OF 90W. SIMILARLY TO SW N ATLC...AIR MASS REMAIN VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD VEERING WINDS W OF 95W LATE IN FORECAT PERIOD WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN SPEED. SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.