000 AGXX40 KNHC 261649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. W OF THE FRONT...SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING WITH N 15-20 KT FLOW. E OF THE FRONT...S WINDS ARE MAINLY 20-25 KT N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO GALE FORCE COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND GENERATED WAVES...LONG PERIOD N SWELL IS AIDING IN ELEVATING SEAS TO 8-12 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING STRONG COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE COAST MON AND MERGE WITH THE CURRENT BOUNDARY ON TUE. NW TO N 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT...ADVECTING MUCH COOLER AIR. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL STALL WED AND THU JUST SE OF THE BAHAMAS. STRONG NE WINDS WILL LINGER W OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY S OF 26N THROUGH LATE WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BUOY/SHIP AND QSCAT DATA SUPPORT N 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY E OF ABOUT 87W WITH LIGHT ELY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF THICK CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE AS A REINFORCING FRONT...BIG PUSH OF COOL AIR...CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF ON MON. THIS FRONT IS QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ELEVATING SEAS TO 8-12 FT LATE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED AND THU...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE AND WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER NE TO E AND LIGHTEN. CARIBBEAN... MORNING SFC OBS AND QSCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT OVER THE TYPICALLY ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE CHANGING FOR THE NW WATERS AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT...N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND SUN. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FRONTS...LIKELY TO MERGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE...STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS MID-WEEK. TROPICAL N ATLC... NE 15-20 KT WINDS...ENHANCED BY A FRONTAL TROUGH JUST E OF THE ZONE...COMBINED WITH N SWELL IS PRODUCING 9-12 FT SEAS OVER THE N WATERS OF THE ZONE. SOME OF THIS SWELL IS SNEAKING THRU THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT AND 5-7 FT THROUGH WED AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER E. NE WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY THU AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.