000 AGXX40 KNHC 241721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 122 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... EARLY MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS AND QSCAT DATA REVEALED STRONG AND EVEN POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE SE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BIASED QUITE LOW INDICATING 7-9 FT SEAS COMPARED TO 12-17 FT OBSERVED IN BUOY AND SHIP DATA. THESE UNUSUAL HIGH SEAS WERE ENHANCED BY MIXED SE AND NW SWELL COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...PUT NO MENTION OF GALE CONDITIONS IN OFF AND HSF PRODUCTS SINCE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN ON THE RAPID DECLINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM THE LOW NEAR 29N86W TO WRN YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE AND SLOW OR POSSIBLY STALL SAT/SAT NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE GULF. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT A KICK BY SUN...ALLOWING IT TO CLEAR THE AREA. A REINFORCING FRONT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EAST WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING 20 KT ELY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BULK OF THE TROP N ATLC ZONE DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE MAIN CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CONSIST OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE. N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE OTHER CHANGE IS NLY SWELL SPREADING S FROM THE N ATLC. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS 8-9 FT SEAS SPREADING INTO THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND UP TO 12 FT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. SW N ATLC... GALE WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE NW WATERS. HI-RES QSCAT PASS REVEALED A FEW 35 KT WIND VECTORS...SO DECIDED WOULD START THE WARNING (SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED). THIS GALE EVENT IS SET TO EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF LIFTS NE...ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING...AMZ080...N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.