000
AGXX40 KNHC 201652
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A 
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP ELY 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN THEN MOVES IT INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN INTO THE 
SOUTHERN GULF THU AND INTO N FLORIDA SAT. THIS IS VERY DIFFERENT 
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS MORE IN 
LINE WITH THE NAM.

ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL BECOME 
STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT DISSIPATE LATE TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT ARE DECREASING...HOWEVER LARGE SWELLS SHOULD LINGER 
THROUGH TUE THEN SUBSIDE BY WED. RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE ATLC RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND 
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE 
WEEK WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SAT.

A WEAK LOW PRES...1013 MB...IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W.
LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE 
BELIZE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT 15 
TO 20 KT E FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA TOWARD THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. OTHERWISE TYPICAL 
TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.