000 AGXX40 KNHC 191729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FLAMINGO IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR MERIDA ON THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GLIDE SOUTH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN STALL OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. QUIKSCAT AND BUOY DATA SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE BIG BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGHEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY LIMITED. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH TEXAS TOWARD THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRI AS UPPER SUPPORT CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE BELIZE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT EAST FLOW OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO SW HAITI...RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THE SPEED CONVERGENCE IS DUE TO A SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 62W NEAR TRINIDAD. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH...AND THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 40N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF GUYANA TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER NEXT WEEK...SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR BELIZE...BUT GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW SHIFT WEST OVERLAND AND WEAKENING. THIS LEAVES MODERATE TO FRESH EAST FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 20N W OF 55W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N56W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE MON...BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING BY MID WEEK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO AREA BUOYS. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH...EXPECT WINDS TO 25 KT BY TONIGHT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. BUOYS AND QUIKSCAT SHOW SW 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A RIDGE AXIS NOSES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING FRESH SWELL UP TO 13 FT PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE BAHAMAS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY WED...AND PUSH SOUTH OF 31N THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEHIND FRONT...PROMPTING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU INTO FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.