000 AGXX40 KNHC 180627 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO FL BIG BEND TO 25N93W TO 19N95W. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO PSN 31N75W TO FL STRAITS TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE ATLC SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA SUN NIGHT REACHING PSN FROM 31N63W TO 23N79W THEN QUASI STATIONARY OVER NW CARIBBEAN INTO A PERSISTENT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES VICINITY OF BELIZE AROUND SUNRISE MON. ATLC SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE E MON AND MON NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO SE BAHAMAS AROUND SUNRISE TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG 22N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CONTINUED LOW PRES NEAR BELIZE. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN LIFT NE ACROSS THE SE GULF MAINTAINING A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE W PORTION SW ATLC ZONE AND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. OTHER MODELS WASH OUT THE FRONT AND WEAKEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE TONIGHT AND SUN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON...REACHING ALONG 75W LATE WED NIGHT. THE NE-SE WIND SHIFT IS MOSTLY AT 15 KT ATTM AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER WATERS N OF 11N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT. ASSUMING THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT MOTION...IT SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG 55W AROUND SUNRISE TUE AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY VERY CONVECTIVE AS IT IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH THE DIFFLUENT SEMICIRCLE OF AN UPPER LOW....BUT ALL OF THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. GULF OF MEXICO...N-NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT W OF FRONT EXCEPT NW-N 20-25 KT EXTREME SW GULF THROUGH SUN. WINDS BECOME SE OVER THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT SEEMS TO SUPPORT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON THEN NE-E 10-15 KT THROUGH WED...EXCEPT SE WATERS CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM TS OMAR TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SHIFT E AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A NE-SE WIND SHIFT OVER TROPICAL WATERS N OF 17N. ELY WINDS 15-20 KT W CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES NEAR BELIZE. ELY WINDS ALSO INCREASE ALONG N COAST OF COLOMBIA MON THROUGH WED. ATLC...HIGH PRES NEAR 30N70W IS SURROUNDED BY LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS N OF 27N WITH ELY WINDS 10-15 KT S OF 27N AND THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY N WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT DRIVING N SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 14 FT INTO N-CENTRAL WATERS...AND TO 10 FT N BAHAMAS...BY LATE MON. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ALL AREAS WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.