000 AGXX40 KNHC 131742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND REACH THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AND WEAKEN OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF 70W. THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TROUGH AND BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 70W WITH A CENTER NEAR 31N62W. THE FEATURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT A LITTLE EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF 55W DURING FRIDAY. MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND COMBINE WITH THE ATLANTIC TROUGH. RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG MIDDLE LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A BROAD TROUGH TO THE AREA NORTH OF 25N FROM 70W TO 85W SATURDAY. SURFACE... TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSSION FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM. LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE SOUTH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH GULF EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NORTHEAST MEXICO MIDDAY SATURDAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.