000 AGXX40 KNHC 130732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED AT 23N88W HAS DEEP TROUGH EXTEND NE TO NRN FLORIDA AND DIGS SW INTO E PAC. SYSTEM FORCING MID LATITUDE AIR ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. TROPICAL AIR MASS ON SE SIDE OF VORTEX ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SW N ATLC AND WRN CARIBBEAN. VORTEX MOVE SW INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN SHIFT W OUT OF AREA. SYSTEM INCREASE CONVECTION E OF AXIS AS IT MOVES W ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TURNS E-W JUST N OF 31N BRINGING STEADY ZONAL W FLOW OVER SW N ATLC THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS. BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA KEEPS WIDE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER CARIBBEAN ALLOWING OUTFLOW FROM LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER ERN CARIBBEAN TO IMPROVE ITS CHANCES OF CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND DRIFT IT N TO HISPANIOLA BY WED THEN SHIFT NE OVER PUERTO RICO AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC. FORECAST AGREES WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB OVER MID-ATLC SEABOARD MOVE S MAINTAINING HEALTHY E-NE FLOW ACROSS SW N ATLC THRU PERIOD. FLOW SHIFT N AS LOW PRES MOVES NE OF PUERTO RICO AFTER THU. LOW PRES OVER SWRN CARIBBEAN MAKES AREA SUSPECT OF CYCLONIC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT WHICH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATE...BUT COMPETITION WITH LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.