000 AGXX40 KNHC 061734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SYNOPSIS...REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH 31N73W 28.5N81W 27N87W DRIFTING W ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REMNANTS OF THIS SAME TROUGH SPAWNED A LOW PRES E OF BELIZE A FEW DAYS AGO WHICH MOVED OR REFORMED NW OVER THE S-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTENSIFIED TO TD13 AT 15Z THIS AM...EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL TS AND MOVE INLAND NEAR 19.6N 96.4W TUE MORNING. GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE 31N93W 28N99W. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 30N67W WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH 21N59W 28N59W SHIFTING W UNDER RIDGE TO N. TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 71W MOVING W 11 KT PAST 48 HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE LOCATED S OF 19N ALONG 61W ALSO MOVING W AT 11 KT. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY W UNTIL A STRONG AND FAST MOVING...BUT MOSTLY DRY...COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE INTO AREA AND OVERRUNS WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE MERGED COLD FRONT WILL LIE ALONG 31N63W 28N73W 29N81W TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE S THROUGH BAHAMAS AND MERGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30N58W TO HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS W OF EXISTING TROUGH AT 15-20 KT OVER ATLC AND N GULF OF MEXICO AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE REINFORCING NLY SURGE. SLY WINDS OVER NW GULF CONTINUE TILL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TX COAST TUE AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT MOVES E IT DRAG THE W SEGMENT OF THE ATLC COLD FRONT N INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ALONG E FL COAST TO 20 KT. THIS PATTERN REPEATS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ALONG GA COAST LATE THU AND A YET A THIRD FRONT APPROACHES TX COAST SUN. TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS MENTIONED IN TEXT AND DENOTED ON GRAPHICS BUT ONLY EXPECT A 15 KT WIND SHIFT ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ082...TS WRNG S 21N W 93W THRU TUE MORNING. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.