000 AGXX40 KNHC 031743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT 31N74W 26N77W THEN QUASI STNR TO 21N90W. PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH 24N80W TO WEAK LOW PRES 23N80W 1009 MB. RIDGE 31N55W 26.5N75W. HIGH PRES 34N81W 1016 MB WITH RIDGE SW TO 26N80W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W MOVING W 11 KT AND ALONG AND WAVE ALONG 47W MOVING W ABOUT 8 KT. THE COLD FRONT HAS MERGED WITH THE TROUGH OVER SW ATLC TO THE N OF 23N AND WILL MERGE WITH THE CARIBBEAN SEGMENT TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR SHOWS FRONT AND TROUGH HAS NOT ONLY MERGED OVER FLORIDA STRAITS BUT IS ALREADY MOVING BACK SLOWLY TO NW...SO ADJUSTED THIS MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE TO ADVANCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SCENARIO AHEAD A FEW HOURS. THESE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W TO ALONG PSN FROM CENTRAL FL TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN... WITH WHATEVER REMNANTS REMAIN WASHING OUT COMPLETELY OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS VERY CONVECTIVE ATTM WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ALONG A PLUME ENDING OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PLUME WILL ALSO SHIFT SLIGHTLY W AND ALSO BECOME SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN PHASE AND THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMA CHANNEL INITIALLY...AND LATER THE FL SE PORTS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TO JUST W OF BERMUDA BEFORE BRIEFLY STALLING AND THEN MOVING BACK W TOWARDS N FL SUN AND MON. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W OF FRONT AND CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT E OF FRONT AS RIDGE BUILDS N OF AREA DISSOLVING THE TROUGH MON NIGHT IN VICINITY N FL. MODERATE E TRADES OVER TROPICS WILL SPREAD W OVER NW CARIBBEAN AS FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVE W OF AREA. TROPICAL WAVES ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT SO NOT MENTIONED IN OFFSHORE TEXT PRODUCTS...BUT WAVE ENTERING E CARIBBEAN IS QUITE CONVECTIVE ATTM AS IT TRACKS W IN PHASE WITH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER CURRENTLY NEAR 17N61W. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE E TX COAST AT SUNSET TUE AND EXTEND FROM FL PANHANDLE TO NE OLD MEXICO LATE WED. NE WINDS 15-20 KT NW OF FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.