000 AGXX40 KNHC 271748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH THE EASTERN END OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LINING THE FRONT...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY...THE CONTRAST BETWEEN RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES CONTINUES TO FAVOR NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT S OF 22N AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL. IN FACT...SHIP ELFJ6 EARLIER THIS MORNING REPORTED N 25 KT WINDS WITH 10 FT SEAS NEAR 19.8N94.9W IN RAIN SHOWERS ...CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE OF OCCASIONAL EVEN HIGHER WINDS STILL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...A GENERAL NE TO E FLOW PREVAILS...WITH 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE. ONLY OVER THE FAR NE WATERS N OF 28N IS THE WIND FLOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT...FROM THE W TO NW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD DRIFT N AND THEN NNE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUN. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE EITHER JUST E OF NORTHERN BELIZE OR CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST...NEAR WHERE TSTMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS. THE EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON SHOULD CAUSE A BROAD AREA OF UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WATERS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AROUND THE LOW...WITH OCCASIONAL WINDS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT EXCEPT OVER THE FAR N AND NW AND OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN ADDITION ...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE WAVE SHOULD RIDE UP THE OLD FRONT AND LIE NEAR TAMPA TUE EVENING...ONLY TO PASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REACH THE SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY WED. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES...MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD STEADILY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED EVENING AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ONLY DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INSTEAD OF DEEPER INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEYS AS IN YESTERDAYS RUNS. AS A RESULT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF NW TO N 15 TO 20 KT WINDS...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS. WITH STRONGER WINDS ONLY BLOWING FOR A SHORT TIME...SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT AT BEST...WITH NONE OF THE WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLES SHOWING 8 FT OR HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS. CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE TIME BEING IS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...JUST OFFSHORE THE EASTERN YUCATAN. AS IT DOES SO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SE TO S WINDS SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING GENERALLY W OF 84W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IMPRESSIVELY LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THERE NOW OF 1 TO 3 FT TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SW GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD FOLLOW THE LOW ON ITS NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALSO...WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. NOAA WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY TUE. WHETHER THIS HAPPENS OR NOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND THE FETCH WIDTH. AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE AREA...A BROAD TROUGH DANGLING FROM IT FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN WILL MEAN A WEAK S TO SW FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE...A PRETTY TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THU NEXT WEEK...WITH NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT TRADES EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 15 TO 20 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE EAST AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE WEST...WITH HEIGHT WAVE HEIGHTS IN E SWELL OF 4 TO 7 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OF FINAL NOTE...A STRONG EARLY FALL COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN LATE THU ...THOUGH NO ESPECIALLY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE COULD...HOWEVER...BE A BRIEF BURST OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG IT. SW N ATLC... EARLIER THIS MORNING TROPICAL STORM KYLE PASSED N OF THE AREA ...THOUGH ITS EFFECTS CONTINUE TO BE FELT OVER THE NE WATERS. FOR EXAMPLE...N OF 28N E OF 70W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT STILL LIKELY PREVAIL BUT WILL BE ABATING RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 12 FT SEAS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 240 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT AND LIKELY STILL EXIST OVER THE FAR NE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NE WATERS...HOWEVER...AS NE SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD REINFORCE THE SEAS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT LEAST INTO EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA... THOUGH 6 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL ARE STILL BEING REPORTED N OF 27N EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE NEXT MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DART NE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TUE AND BRIEFLY PASS THROUGH THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY WED. AS IT APPROACHES...MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN FACT...FOR AT LEAST 2 RUNS NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING S TO SW WINS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OUT TO 70W AND N OF 25N. WITH SUCH A LARGE FETCH...THE MODEL DEVELOPS SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT BY WED MORNING AND 8 TO 12 FT LATER WED OVER NORTHERN WATERS. MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. IMMEDIATELY AFTER ITS PASSAGE...A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GULF WED SHOULD PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MERGE WITH THE LOW HEADING NE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE FLOW WILL SHIFT NW TO N. ALL OF THE STRONGEST WINDS INSTEAD SHOULD LIE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT. FINALLY...TODAY THROUGH WED...NE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP 5 TO 8 FT SEAS E OF 72W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.