000 AGXX40 KNHC 260624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ..GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC... THE MODELS VARY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE SC COAST BY 00Z/28 WITH THE NAM CARRYING A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATL AND ACROSS FL INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR KYLE...WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY FROM THIS LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS KYLE PASSES N ON ITS E PERIPHERY MAKING FOR A MORE EASTERLY ORIENTED TROUGH BY 00Z/28. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER TO CARRY THE DEEP LOW INLAND...ALLOWING FOR MORE TROUGHING OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR T.S. KYLE IS TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL. OVER FORECAST WATERS...THE GFS CARRIES THE DEEPEST SOLUTION FOR T.S. KYLE...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...CARRIES A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION THAN THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL OF WHICH ALLOW MUCH MORE TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL...THE MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION OF THE GFS WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS MORE IN LINE THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. BOTH IN THE SW N ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE GFDL WAVE WATCH WAS RUNNING TOO LARGE AND TOO FAR S WITH ITS AREA OF 12 FT SEAS FOR KYLE...SO THIS WAS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION FOR THE FORECAST....BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE GULF/SW N ATLC. THE MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH IS DOING A BETTER JOB INITIALLY WITH KYLE...BUT IS LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE GA AND N FL COAST. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE E OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW AS KYLE LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ...ATLC OCEAN S OF 30N... A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW NE OF FORECAST WATERS IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE SEAS ABOVE 8 FT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CUTTING THE LOW OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TODAY AND THEN RETROGRADE IT W. THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE LOW WHILE THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST W. OVERALL...DO NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS HERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.