000 AGXX40 KNHC 250509 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... LARGE INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW IS JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 65W TO 93W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ANTILLES AND THE CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE CIRCULATION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AS THE WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE CIRCULATION. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT PICKS UP THE LOW WILL BE A TROUGH THAT IS LEFT BEHIND OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. BY MONDAY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE A WEAK RIDGE. SURFACE... WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS IN THE GULF MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRIDAY. SOME 20 KNOT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORM IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 75W. STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF 31N AND FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST. LOW IS JUST NORTH OF REPUBLICA DOMINICANA AND THE LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG 70W AND REACH 31N FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE HURRICANE CENTER STARTS ADVISORIES THE FORECAST MAY INCLUDE WARNINGS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.