000 AGXX40 KNHC 241807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 211 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... HURCN FORCE STORM CENTER LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N75.5W IS THE KEY PLAYER IN THE FCST WITH 1100 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASS INDICATING N TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE ZONE N OF 30N. BUOYS 41010 AND 41012 REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25+ KT ATTM BUT ARE NOT IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS NOTED IN THE QSCAT PASS. SAME BUOYS REPORTED SEAS OF 12-14 FT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW WWD THROUGH 12Z THU THEN TURN THE SYS NWWD AND INLAND OVER THE UPPER SC COAST BY 06Z-12Z FRI. THREAT OF 30-40 KT GALES FOR THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA (N OF 30N) EXISTS AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WWD ALONG 31N...HOWEVER ONCE THE SYS TURNS MORE NWWD WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE NW. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WHICH HAS BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT WITH TIME IS THE NOW DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESS EMERGING OFF HISPANIOLA AND CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS. THUS FAR THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST AS FAR AS KEEPING THE SYSTEM WEAK AND ATTACHING MORE SIGNIFICANCE TO THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. NOW THE GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT AS WELL IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WEAK AS WELL. THE LESS RELIABLE CMC/NOGAPS/NAM STILL DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM NWD ALONG 71W TO 31N BY FRI. WILL MAINTAIN A SEPARATE AREA OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM MAINLY OVER AREAS E OF 71W/E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR BY SAT RIDGE BUILDS WWD ALONG 27N IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOWS WITH SWLY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. RIDGE MOVES NWD TO ALONG 29N SUN AND 31N MON. AS THE RIDGE MOVES N EXPECT ELY TRADES TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 23N BY MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 0918 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASS INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THU. WINDS BECOME NE TO E BUT REMAIN LIGHT FRI AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SAT AND SUN OVER N PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS BUILD 6 TO 8 FT AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KT MON BUT WITH RESIDUAL NE SWELL OVER N PORTIONS. OVER THE CARIBBEAN SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW NEAR HISPANIOLA GIVE WAY TO MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... FRESH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N IN THE WAKE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC. THESE WINDS GRADUALLY FILTERS SWD OVER THE GULF W OF 90W THU AND FRI AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING...N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.