000 AGXX40 KNHC 231830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER EVENT WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR SW N ATLC... CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC... CHANGES BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE AS A RESULT OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE ONCE AGAIN INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. DEPENDING ON THE FINDINGS OF THE AIRCRAFT...TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED IN AN AMENDED PRODUCT. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT IN TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM RELATIVE TO A DEVELOPING GALE/STORM CENTER OFF THE SE COAST. THE GFS/CMC/NOGAPS/NAM AND GFS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NWD ALONG 70W-72W TO ALONG 31N BY FRI. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER E WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE SAME MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SEPARATE FROM A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC GALE/STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. THE UKMET AND THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICT A WEAKER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH AND THEREFORE ATTACH MORE ENERGY TO THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. PER THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN TPC/HPC WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD THE FIRST GROUP OF MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND FCST THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ALONG 70W TO NEAR 31N70W BY FRI WHILE THE BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DRIFTS WWD TO NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY LATE THU/EARLY FRI. STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE NOW OCCURRING JUST N OF THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER N OF 29N W OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WED AND WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS TURN MORE NW AND SUBSIDE THU AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST. LARGE FETCH OF N TO NE WINDS ALSO PRODUCES SEAS UP TO 16-18 FT ALONG THE AREA N OF 30N PER NWW3 AND FNMOC WAVE MODEL. THE UKMET WAVE MODEL STILL FCST SEAS TO 20-22 FT ALONG 31N. WILL LEAN TWD THE NWW3/FNMOC WAVE MODELS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM REMAIN SEPARATE FROM ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM MAINLY OVER AREAS E OF 70W/E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. TROPICAL N ATLC... 0944 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PERIPHERAL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NWWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU. WINDS BECOME NE TO E BUT REMAIN LIGHT FRI AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SAT AND SUN OVER N PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS BUILD 6 TO 9 FT AS WELL. GULF OF MEXICO... SFC TROUGH ALONG 96W S OF 25N IS FCST TO DRIFT W AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF IN THE WAKE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT LOCALLY AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 25N WED. AREA OF WINDS FILTERS SWD OVER THE GULF W OF 90W THU AND FRI AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF SAT AND SUN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL NELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BOTH DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING...N OF 29N W OF FRONTAL TROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.