000 AGXX40 KNHC 221818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER EVENT EVOLVING MID TO LATE WEEK SW N ATLC... CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC... SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE SW N ATLC ZONE MID WEEK STEMMING FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FCST TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT IN TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM RELATIVE TO A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER OFF THE SE COAST. THE CMC/NOGAPS/NAM AND GFS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NNW TO NWD ALONG 70W/71W TO ALONG 31N BY FRI. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER E AND FASTER WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE SAME MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SEPARATE FROM A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. THE UKMET AND THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICT A WEAKER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEREFORE ATTACH MORE ENERGY TO THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. PER THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN TPC/HPC WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FIRST SOLUTIONS AND FCST THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ALONG 70W/71W TO NEAR 31N73W BY FRI WHILE THE BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA LATE TUE/EARLY WED AND DRIFTS WWD TO NEAR THE SC COAST BY LATE THU/EARLY FRI. STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FCST OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SC. LARGE FETCH OF N TO NE WINDS ALSO PRODUCES SEAS UP TO 16-18 FT ALONG THE AREA N OF 30N PER NWW3 AND FNMOC WAVE MODEL. INTERESTINGLY THE UKMET WAVE MODEL FCST SEAS OVER 20 FT. WILL LEAN TWD THE NWW3/FNMOC WAVE MODELS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM REMAIN SEPARATE FROM ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM MAINLY OVER AREAS E OF 70W/E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE ZONE FROM WED THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL N ATLC... 1010 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IN THE MONA PASSAGE. MODERATE ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NWWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL WED AND THU AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS BECOME NE TO E BUT REMAIN LIGHT FRI AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SAT OVER N PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. GULF OF MEXICO... SFC TROUGH ALONG 96W S OF 25N IS FCST TO DRIFT W AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC ALLOWS NE WINDS TO FRESHEN TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE OVER N PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF WHICH SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 25N WED. AREA OF WINDS EVENTUALLY FILTERS SWD OVER THE W PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF THU AND FRI AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.