000 AGXX40 KNHC 211832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER EVENT MID TO LATE WEEK SW N ATLC... CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC... SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE SW N ATLC ZONE MID WEEK STEMMING FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST S OF PUERTO RICO AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FCST TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY IN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE WHETHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. DEPENDING ON WHAT THE AIRCRAFT FINDS...WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC. MODELS ARE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SYSTEM NWD ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE BY LATE MON WITH THE CMC/NOGAPS/NAM AND GFS DEPICTING A STRONGER SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FURTHER E WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO BE LATCHING UNTO DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N AND E OF THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE GFS/CMC MODELS ALSO KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SEPARATE FROM A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. THE UKMET AND THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEREFORE ATTACH MORE ENERGY TO THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. PER THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN TPC/HPC WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS AND FCST THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY NWWD TO NEAR 28N73W BY FRI WHILE THE BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA LATE TUE AND DRIFTS WWD TO NEAR THE GA/SC COAST BY LATE THU. STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FCST OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU AND REMAINS SEPARATE FROM ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM MAINLY OVER AREAS E OF 70W. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE ZONE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL N ATLC... 1036 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW S OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION SOME OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN OCCURRING IN THE SAME AREA. ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NWD. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL WED AND THU AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS BECOME NE TO E BUT REMAIN LIGHT FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... SFC TROUGH ALONG 94W S OF 28N IS FCST TO DRIFT W AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC ALLOWS NE WINDS TO FRESHEN TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE OVER THE NE GULF WHICH SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 25N WED. AREA OF WINDS EVENTUALLY FILTERS SWD OVER THE SW GULF THU AND FRI AS THE WINDS ELSEWHERE SUBSIDE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.