000 AGXX40 KNHC 191811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF. BROAD TROUGH SLOWLY FILLS AND DRIFTS WWD THROUGH LATE SUN OVER THE W GULF WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN MON. BY LATE TUE STRONG EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SWD OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF ZONES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC... DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO 26N80W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRESH N TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE ZONE. FRONT AND TROUGH MERGE AND SLOWLY DRIFT WWD SAT AND SUN TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITH ESSENTIALLY LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ON TUE STRONG EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SWD ALONG THE E COAST N OF THE EXISTING FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 20 KT TUE AND 20-25 KT POSSIBLY STRONGER OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO OF INTRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS AS TO HOW THIS WIND FIELD EVOLVES. THE NOGAPS/NAM AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE UKMET DEVELOP LOW PRES OF TROPICAL ORIGIN ALONG THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 64W AND MOVE IT NW INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE VIA THE SE BAHAMAS. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING WITH THE NOGAPS/NAM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN BY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE UKMET DELAYING ITS ENTRANCE INTO THE ZONE UNTIL LATE WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND S OF THE SPRAWLING HIGH WITH A LARGE FETCH OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS N OF THE AREA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLC. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND WAIT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ON THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W. THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE HIGH PRESS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL BELT WILL RESULT IN SUBNORMAL TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. TROPICAL N ATLC... MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE AREA ALONG 64W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOTED WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE AREA W OF 57W. STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL NE OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE WITH BOTH QSCAT AND ASCAT DATA INDICATING ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FCST WITH ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ZONE LATE MON THROUGH WED WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WIND SHIFT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.