000 AGXX40 KNHC 170706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 27N83W TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 25N93W WITH FRONT CONTINUING S TO 18N94W. NLY WINDS S OF 26N W OF FRONT AT 20 KT. STILL EXPECT FRONT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH MEANDERING OVER THE W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS OCCASIONALLY SUGGEST LOW PRES FORMATION ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT WILL GO WITH N WINDS W OF TROUGH AND LIGHT ELY WINDS E OF TROUGH FOR NOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... LATEST Q-SCAT PASS AND A FEW SHIP OBS CONFIRM BROAD TROPICAL WAVE WAS IN VICINITY 80W AT 00Z. WINDS W OF WAVE AXIS MORE NE THAN PROGGED...BUT SEEM TO BE AT LEAST 15 KT OVER W GULF OF HONDURAS. QSCAT WINDS AND A FEW SHIP OBS INDICATE WINDS ALONG N COAST COLOMBIA HAVE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT...BUT SSMI DATA SUGGESTS SEA HEIGHTS ARE STILL ABOUT 6-8 FT...AND SHIP V7LZ8 REPORTED 7 FT AT 00Z...SO WILL KEEP SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE GUIDANCE INITIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL WATERS. NWW3 SEEMS RIGHT ON THE MONEY E CARIBBEAN AND NW TROPICAL ATLC ZONE PER 2330Z JASON PASS. WAVE ALONG 81W HAS MOVED W 13 KT PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD MOVE WAVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUNSET THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 64W MOVED W 14 KT PAST 24 HOURS... EXTRAPOLATING THAT MOTION WILL MOVE AXIS TO ALONG 71W THU...77W FRI...83W SAT AND 87W SUN. YET ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC WAS ALONG 39W AT 00Z AND THAT WORKS OUT TO W 13 KT MOTION PAST 24 HOURS...USING THAT MOTION SHOULD MOVE WAVE TO ALONG 55W SUNSET FRI AND INTO E CARIBBEAN SUNRISE SUN. SW N ATLC... THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N74W TO 30N65W ATTM AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES W-NW. TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS BUT LITTLE CONVECTION TONIGHT EXCEPT JUST NE OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE FRONT CREEPING OFF NE FL COAST ATTM. STILL EXPECT THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO MERGE FRI ALONG 77W INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL RETURN SLOWLY W TO THE FL COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. E OF TROUGH...RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 29N WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT S OF 23N AS EARLY AS SUNRISE FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.