000 AGXX40 KNHC 151732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 30N88W TO 24N98W IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING E AND SE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ERUPTING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IN ITS WAKE...BUOY AND CMAN STATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 4 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO 28N85W...WITH A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM NE TO SW. S TO SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. OTHERWISE...N OF 26N...WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS. S OF 26N E OF FRONT MOSTLY E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL AND SEAS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY FARTHER E AND EXTEND FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO 27N92W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING AND THEN STALL BEFORE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY BY THU. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE DISSIPATING FROM IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH FRI OR SAT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY SO LONG AS IT REMAINS ACTIVE TUE AND WED. BRISK N TO NE WINDS SHOULD DIVE FAR S INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NE MEXICAN COAST BY TONIGHT...AND WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING WED. SEAS COULD BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE AND BEGIN SUBSIDING WED. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP LIGHT MOSTLY NE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF THE FRONT WED AND THU. NOAA WAVEWATCH III INDICATES SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT...WITH THE LOWEST SEAS OVER THE NE QUARTER. THESE SAME CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND TOO...WITH 10 KT OR LESS OF NE TO E FLOW E OF 90W AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... LATEST QUIKSCAT...BUOY...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ONLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W ARE THE TRADES SOMEWHAT STRONGER...BLOWING NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT EXCEPT UP TO 8 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL N OF 18N E OF 78W AND E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 75W. SEAS ARE AVERAGING 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS...A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WITH ITS MAIN AMPLITUDE N OF 16N IS MOVING WNW TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED E TO SE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 330 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SEAS UP TO 8 OR 9 FT OVER AT LEAST PART OF THIS AREA. STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BLOWING OVER THE WAVE IS CREATING STRONG SHEARING CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. STILL THOUGH...STRONGER WINDS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TUE. ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SW OR W CARIBBEAN WITHIN A FEW DAYS AND DRIFTING NW. THE GFS IS NOW WEAKEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVES IT INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY THU OR FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW THE STRONGEST MOVING IT INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. WITH NO CLEAR CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS...HAVE CHOSEN TO INTRODUCE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES...WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... MODEL AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NE OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N62 TO 25N67W. N OF 25N E OF 70W TODAY A GENERAL NW TO N WIND 10 KT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE N TO NE BY TUE. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE...WITH SW TO W WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS N OF 29N AND NE TO E WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS AREA WIDE SHOULD AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT. S OF 26N A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT E OF BAHAMAS TO 2 FT OR LESS W OF BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...EXCEPT THAT THE NE TO E WIND FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVER THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED AND THU. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH UNEVENTFULLY...THOUGH WIND SHOULD SHIFT NW TO N 10 KT OR LESS IN ITS WAKE AND THEN VEER MORE N TO NE LATE WEEK. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO LINE THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO FORM NEAR 30N72W. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW ORGANIZING FURTHER FRI AND LIFTING NE WITH THE RESPONSE BEING INCREASED NE FLOW OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS COAST. AS A RESULT ...MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SEAS N OF 28N W OF 74W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL SAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.