000 AGXX40 KNHC 131715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW WEAKENING RAPIDLY INLAND OVER SE TEXAS. MAX WINDS ARE NEAR 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ACCORDINGLY...REPLACED HURRICANE WARNING IN THE NW ZONE WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WILL LIKELY TAKE DOWN ALL WARNINGS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING BUT THE 12 FT SEA RADII STILL EXTENDS WITHIN 420 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE THROUGH TOMORROW. AS IKE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTHEN OF THE FRONT. GFS/NOGAPS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUILDING 20-30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SURGING THRU THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. WHILE UKMET...ECMWF...NAM HAVE WEAKER SOLUTIONS. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE STRONGER SOLUTION AS THE PRES GRADIENT IS TYPICALLY TIGHT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST IN THESE SITUATIONS...CAUSING A NLY SURGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. LATEST DATA REVEALS 15-20 KT SE WINDS W OF 85W AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ELY TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS ARE MAINLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 7 FT IN THE W GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR 8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATTERN HOLDS. A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ALONG 42W...62W AND 72W...MAY ENHANCE WINDS BRIEFLY AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THEY MOVE W ABOUT 15 KT. BY TUE AND WED...GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CARIB. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW LITTLE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. DID NOT EXPLICITLY GO WITH THESE SOLUTIONS SINCE STILL OUT IN EXPECTED RANGE. SW N ATLC... A SFC TROUGH...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...CONTINUES MOVING W OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 28N68W 21N74W. AN 1044Z QSCAT PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT NE/SE WIND SHIFT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE HIGHEST E OF THE TROUGH...NEAR 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W AND 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH LINE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW NEAR 10 KT AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE E COAST OF FLORIDA SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES GENERALLY CREATING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS N OF 25N MON THRU WED AND 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS S OF 25N. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 27N W OF 91W...GMZ080 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.