000 AGXX40 KNHC 130610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT SA SEP 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HURCN IKE MAKING LANDFALL ATTM AS A STRONG CAT 2 NEAR 29N94W. EXPECT MAX SEAS HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN GULF SHELF AS STRONGEST BAND NOW OVER COASTAL PLAINS. THE LARGE WIND FIELD PRODUCING 12 FT SEAS AS FAR E AS THE W FL PANHANDLE. CURRENT OBS HAS 12 FT ABOUT 90 NM SW QUAD. WITH LARGE WIND FIELD OVER S SEMICIRCLE EXPECT S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF IKE STILL EXPECTED TO DRAG AN EARLY SEASON CDFNT OFF THE TX COAST LATE SUN AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND DECREASE SLY WINDS TO 15 KT BY SUNSET SUN. MODELS ALSO NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WITH MAX WINDS NOW AT 30 KT...AS FORECAST...ALONG NE MEXICAN COAST LATE MON NIGHT. MODELS NOW TAKE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER E OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO NEAR FL BIG BEND...BUT STILL HOLD THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF FRONT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND INDICATE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL REMNANTS AS EARLY AS TUE AFTERNOON. NO SURPRISE ON MODELS INDICATING LOW PRES ALONG DECAYING FRONT BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... SE WINDS STILL AT 20 KT NW CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEAR YUCATAN PASSAGE TODAY BUT CONTINUE 15-20 KT OVER SW GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH PERIOD. QSCAT AND SSMI DATA INDICATE NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-77W...THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON THEN GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE THROUGH TUE ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE IN THAT AREA THEN...SO WILL MENTION 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH PERIOD. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS ON FRI. WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71W IS FORECAST TO MOVE W 15 KT TO ALONG 77W SUN...85W MON AND W OF GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON NIGHT. WAVE ALONG 59W ATTM EXPECTED TO MOVE W 15 KT TO ALONG 67W SUN...73W MON...78W TUE...AND 85W WED. WAVE ALONG 43W ATTM EXPECTED TO MOVE W 15 KT TO ALONG 55W MON...ALONG 62W TUE AND ALONG 67W WED. SW N ATLC... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ATTM. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W NW TO ALONG FL SE COAST LATE SUN...NOTE ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. NE TO SE WINDSHIFT AT 15-20 KT ALONG TROUGH AXIS DETECTED IN LATEST QSCAT PASS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALMOST IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST OPEN TROUGH AT SURFACE MOVING INLAND AND STALLING OVER SOUTHERN FL TUE AND WED...SEPARATING SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANOTHER E OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... BASED ON LAST ADVISORY GMZ080...HURCN WRNG N OF 26N. GMZ084...TS WRNG N OF 28N W OF 88W. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.